Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($83.51)
BB ($48.72)
UTG ($187)
UTG+1 ($111)
Hero ($97.93)
BTN ($104)
Dealt to Hero 3♥ 3♦
fold, fold, Hero raises to $3, BTN calls $3, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2
FLOP ($12) 8♦ 3♣ 2♠
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $7.50, BTN calls $7.50, SB folds, BB folds
TURN ($27) 8♦ 3♣ 2♠ 6♣
Hero bets $17, BTN calls $17
RIVER ($61) 8♦ 3♣ 2♠ 6♣ 4♦
Hero bets $20, BTN raises to $76.50 (AI), Hero folds
villain: 18/15 - 70 hands
Mainly targeting 99-TT, 86s (JJ) 22 here with my bet. But if he is somewhat of a decent handreader he should realize that he is beat when I bet this small. Also my rather small bet, might induce bluffs from the overpairs?
But can I assume that a nl100 regular turns his overpairs into a bluff here and call, or that 22 might valueshove?
Or should I consider just overbetting to make my hand look like a bluff? It looks superbluffy and I have basically no 5x in my range when I play the hand this way, so he might herocall with the overpairs that he otherwise would've fold.
Thoughts?
