Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

[Closed] NL25: 86o freeplay - bet on river ok?

5 Posts
3 Users
0 Reactions
651 Views
Gremlin68
Joined: 18.08.2006

Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)     
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;BB$10.58:///////;MP1$20.05:///////;Hero$5:///////;[/tg]
0.10/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8♠, 6♥. Hero posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero checks, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.85) 7♦, 9♠, 2♠ (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.50, BB calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50.

OESD playing IP both checking to me is a try worth for me.
Turn: ($2.35) A♥ (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

No improvement so c/f play here, a weak A could play this way.
River: ($2.35) 9♥ (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $1, 2 folds.

Mmh quite sure not to have th best hand here, both opp are checking. I think if I want to win this pot I have to bet. Yr. opinion?
Final Pot: $3.35


4 replies
098799
Joined: 23.07.2007

You're right about one thing - if you want this pot, you need to bet.

Still, I don't think I would. You're hoping only on your fold equity, which is high but not that high maybe? You have to make your assumptions. For example:

Assume a fe of 80% per oponent which is quite high I think. That makes 64% of chances that no one of them calls you. Since you have nearly nothing, you can assume they have you beat if they call. So an EV equation for your $1 bet looks like:

(0.36)*(-1$) + (0.64)*(+$2.35) = +$1.144

With 80% fe per oponent, it's clearly +EV move. Can you make such an assumption?

(1-fe)*(-1) + (fe)*(2.35) = 0 => fe = 1/3.35 ~ 30% SQRT(.3) ~ 55%

You need fold equity of 55% against either of your oponents. Do you have it?


xylere
Joined: 28.05.2007

hm, I doubt it) you are badly overplaying these spots maybe you should quit posting from CO ! ;)


Gremlin68 Topic starter
Gremlin68
Joined: 18.08.2006

Originally posted by xylere
hm, I doubt it) you are badly overplaying these spots maybe you should quit posting from CO ! ;)

after having a look at my PP stats I agree totally :)

I have to take myself back strongly in such spots. often think I have to make a move, but don't have to, winning enough with my standard moves, but risking something I don't have to with this marginal decisions.

Will work on this. :)

Many thx @all, think I got a lot new knowledged of the last two days discussions and found some real leaks and failures in understanding :)


Gremlin68 Topic starter
Gremlin68
Joined: 18.08.2006

And I found out that thinking about hands and trying to describe my thoughts I'm starting to write english as Yoda from Star Wars lol ;)

But I hope you understand what I meant;)


Share: