Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($253)
Hero ($104)
UTG ($115)
UTG+1 ($176)
CO ($100)
BTN ($388)
Dealt to Hero A♥ K♣
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $2, fold, Hero raises to $8, BTN calls $6
FLOP ($16.50) 4♠ 3♣ J♣
Hero bets $10, BTN calls $10
TURN ($36.50) 4♠ 3♣ J♣ 9♦
Hero bets $20, BTN calls $20
RIVER ($76.50) 4♠ 3♣ J♣ 9♦ Q♠
Hero bets $66.58 (AI), BTN calls $66.58
villain: 24/20/3/26 - 3.5k hands. 59% fold to 3bet (58% fold to resteal)
I think this hand is pure spew from my side. I had been involved in quite some hands vs this villain earlier, and we have a pretty aggressive dynamic going on between us, esp preflop, where we both have been 3bet/4bet and 5betting pretty loosely. He hasn't caugh me doing any huge bluffs postlfop until now though.
But here my reasoning for betting the turn and river was basically that I expects him to float me pretty much (42% fold to cbet overall, 60% in 3bet pots) since he has seen me both bet/folding, and bet c/folding a decent amount of flops over the time.
But still, by the time we get the river he should have a jack here pretty often, and it I guess it is way too optimistic to expect him to fold it there.
Still I don't like betting flop and turn and then giving up river, so maybe just c/f the flop?
