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60$ 18man bubble BvB as big stacks

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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

New villain, but very reg looking stats. 20(vpip)/20(pfr)/58(steal)/5.6(3bet)/4.0(aggr. fac.) 50 hands.

I could just shove this preflop, but would you ever recommend to try and "beg for a bloody nose" as hero has done here? :)

Poker Stars, $55.56 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): 6,233 (15.6 bb)
BB: 9,699 (24.2 bb)
MP: 4,578 (11.4 bb)
CO: 3,492 (8.7 bb)
BTN: 2,998 (7.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J K
3 folds, Hero completes, BB checks

Flop: (925) 8 5 J (2 players)
Hero bets 450, BB calls 450

Turn: (1,825) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets 1,020, Hero calls 1,020

River: (3,865) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets 2,050, Hero calls 2,050


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3 replies
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Hmm, I'm no mtt plyr, but stack setup looks awkward. Shipping pre looks quite full on given our 2nd place is pretty comfortable. His 3b is not anything crazy so I would prolly raise/f, but if you anticipate abuse, then completing looks good.

I think I prefer bet/fold on turn, marginally; just b/c the river is otherwise super ugly if he shoves vs our check.

Somehow seems like he would be betting more on turn and riv with air, if he just wanted us to fold, since he can exert enourmous pressure. River completes the turned bd flush... Basically we beat only 9T and pure air floats and these might well shove to max fold equity vs our weak sdv range.

On the other hand, if he's halfway decent he knows how horrid this is for us and that the river is a pretty bad card for our range so...

Gut instinct is that if this is a 35:65 payout sng, we might ch/call down here on the bubble, but for an MTT bet/fold turn is better since we are more risk averse and we can make super big mistakes on river if not careful.


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yes, you can open shove pre. if you think he will get abused ship pre, its within nash and probably optimal to prevent getting owned.

tbh i would probably just c/c down 3 streets and let him spew. people really love to attack you when its BS v BS on the bubble and you limp pre then check/call. they know its weak so they will blindly barrel off anything.

as played, the turn can go 2 ways, you can either bet/fold (like tim said) or you can c/c to induce. if you choose c/c you must c/c the river (same reasoning as my 3 street c/c line, he will just auto-barrel any river).

overall i think you played it fine, you can choose a different line, but this one looks fine too.

i guess he just backdoored a flush here right?


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Nah he had K9o. Though that this is pretty good board for my line. So many hands have some sort of straight draw that he can be floating with. Imo he can easily have hand like QT, Q9, T9, 67 beside pure floats. So I was ready to also check-call river shove.


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