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NL25SH KQ TP river line

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awishformore
Joined: 16.06.2007

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $22.68
CO: $28.72
BTN: $15.98 (VP 87 / PR 17 / 3B 6)
Hero (SB): $32.53
BB: $10.82
UTG: $28.18

Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has Q♦ K♣

fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, fold, BTN calls $1.00

Flop: ($2.75, 2 players) K♥ 4♥ T♠
Hero bets $2.23, BTN calls $2.23

Turn: ($7.21, 2 players) T♣
Hero bets $4.12, BTN calls $4.12

River: ($15.45, 2 players) 7♥
Hero bets $9.00, BTN calls $8.38 and is all-in

Not a lot of stats on this fish yet, but I am wondering whether I can check/fold the river here? With the flush hitting and two tens out there, will he ever be betting worse if I check to him? I know he might still call weaker kings, but I don't think they are such a huge part of his range?


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3 replies
veriz
Joined: 20.07.2008

Hello awishformore,

Shouldn't be that wrong even to ship while the guy could easily have worse Kx hands in his range. Only reason why to think otherwise is that I wouldn't assume him bluffing the river when FD completes so you could as well just Check/Fold it if you don't want to pick the thin value.

Best Regards.


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The river is pretty close I think.

It just becomes a math problem. How much Kx he has in comparison to Tx and flushes


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veriz
Joined: 20.07.2008

Originally posted by CallumN
The river is pretty close I think.

It just becomes a math problem. How much Kx he has in comparison to Tx and flushes

We need ~28% equity:

Board: K♥4♥T♠ T♣ 7♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    61.35%  59.90%   1.45% { QQ-TT, 44, K2s+, T2s+, AhQh, AhJh, QhJh, AhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Ah8h, Qh8h, Jh8h, 9h8h, Ah7h, Qh7h, Jh7h, 9h7h, 8h7h, Ah6h, Qh6h, Jh6h, 9h6h, 8h6h, 7h6h, Ah5h, Qh5h, Jh5h, 9h5h, 8h5h, 7h5h, 6h5h, Ah4h, Qh4h, Jh4h, 9h4h, 8h4h, 7h4h, 6h4h, 5h4h, Ah3h, Qh3h, Jh3h, 9h3h, 8h3h, 7h3h, 6h3h, 5h3h, 4h3h, Ah2h, Qh2h, Jh2h, 9h2h, 8h2h, 7h2h, 6h2h, 5h2h, 4h2h, 3h2h, ATo, K2o+, QTo, JTo, T2o+ }
UTG+1  38.65%  37.20%   1.45% { KcQd }

some random range which I came up with his VPIP. Of course we could exclude a lot of hands there but I would assume we still could get it.


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