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[Closed] bluff shove vs minraise flop, 3-bet pot

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swissmoumout
Joined: 24.02.2007

200$ stacks, villain is 20/16 TAG.

1/2 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is BB with A♠, K♣
2 folds, CO raises to $7.00, 2 folds, Hero raises to $24.00, CO calls $17.00.

Flop: ($49.00) 5♣, Q♦, 3♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $32, CO raises to $64.00, Hero raises to $185.00 (All-In)

Flame on

I'll 'splain later, but if you really think about it the move is ok imo


10 replies

Guess its ok if you have a read on villian that he minraises weak, if not it looks a bit spewy.


Thorsten77
Joined: 28.05.2006

The pot is 145$, you risk 153$. Final pot if called: 419$

Lets assume he calls with QQ-TT,55,33,AQs,KQs,AQo - you have 16.5% equity, which is 69$. Hence, we need additional 84$ of fold equity. Therefore, he has to fold 58% of the time. Given the above calling range, he needs a range of ~10% in order to fold often enough. I think its a little bit too optimistic.


What kind of player would min-raise and then fold to shove
If you think that player might float then c/rai is more effective imo.


swissmoumout
Joined: 24.02.2007

He has the following range after the pre-flop call : QQ (or JJ)-99 perhaps, AK, AQ (sometimes) - he won't call a 3.5x 3-bet with low pairs with 100bb stacks, so we can rule that out. He won't have KQs either, since he'll fold to a 3-bet (this isn't a steal situation, so his range is considerably tighter than if it was, say BU vs BB).

Anyhoo, on the flop: 55 and 33 are extremely unlikely (he will only call with them if he's tilting - and even then he'd probably fold PF). Now, what does he minraise with on Qxx in a 3-bet pot? He'd definitely slowplay QQ (or raise more), and AQ would try to get all the money in on the flop, so he'd raise to something like 90$, give or take. This already points to a bluff, but let's look at the hand from his point of view:

I've already said that his range is: QQ-99, AQ+ (wide range), maybe closer to QQ-TT, AK, and you can take away maybe 1/3 of QQ, since he'll occasionally just go broke PF.

Flop: "This aggressive TAG c-bets 3/5th pot on Qxx. Only AQ and QQ+ got there, so he's likely to give up against a raise. I want to be able to get away from the hand too, so a min-raise is enough" <-- this seems like rational thinking for this guy.

Thus I put him on JJ, TT (maybe 99), AK, since strong made hands will definitely not play like that. I have more than enough fold equity to make the move profitable, with 2:1 odds (I invest 144$ to win (total pot+bet) 289$).


Thorsten77
Joined: 28.05.2006

Given the range 99+,AQ+ and a calling range of QQ+,AQ, he will fold 51% of his range and you have 11% against the calling range - that's not enough...


swissmoumout
Joined: 24.02.2007

didn't I just explain that he doesn't have AQ, and that at this point his only range is a bluff? just for arguments' sake you could include QQ, even though I don't think he'd minraise

I've already seen that move btw, min-raising the c-bet in a 3-bet pot with air


chenny8888
Joined: 03.10.2007

why post if his range is only air :(...

thorsten only offered that you need 58% fold equity to make it profitable. so if you feel you have that, then by all means, bluffshove ! :)


Thorsten77
Joined: 28.05.2006

You assume he doesn't have AQ, hence his range is polarized to air-type hands, hence your bluff is +EV. If your assumption is correct, then I'd agree. However, I don't see why you can exclude AQ w/o any detailed reads. If you know his range is a pure bluff, then you can basically shove any2 in such a spot, but I think thats way too optimistic.

BTW: I don't think that minraising in such spots is bad: basically, you only invest the minimum but your opponents has to decide whether he wants to play for stacks.


swissmoumout
Joined: 24.02.2007

Originally posted by chenny8888
why post if his range is only air :(...

tribun forced me to :rolleyes: (seriously)

but yeah, I suppose you can include AQ, but even in that case a bluff is +ev imo


Against a TAG, I would play the aces the same way.