Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $800(BB) Replayer
SB ($760)
BB ($7,361)
UTG ($6,080)
CO ($12,084)
Hero ($715)
Dealt to Hero A♥ J♦
fold, fold, Hero?
I assume this is fold, because I am missing 50 chips? What range should SB call when I fold? Is it any2? Because he can still wait for me to get into allin spot first. He is good reg so should I assume him calling wide there? Anyway if I call he will certainly call any2 to force me win 3way pot.
you blind out first. get it in.
SB is getting immediate odds, but he can still fold a lot of hands because you are AI next hand with ATC at risk (assuming you dont get a walk)
SB can also call here though and you have to win 3way pot. Is it really worse to take your random hand at bb + have a chance for high pockets next 2 hand + have sb complete here occasionally and go broke?
ill take a 3way pot getting 3:1 with AJo any day.
a chance of pockets? we have a top 5% hand now, doesnt get much better.
SB will open fold most of his hands if it folds to him. hes not going to complete a 40% or even a 30% hand when you are AI next hand if he folds.
I did fold this and SB called with KQs, which doesn't really tell anything of his calling range.
Originally posted by lessthanthreee
a chance of pockets? we have a top 5% hand now, doesnt get much better.SB will open fold most of his hands if it folds to him. hes not going to complete a 40% or even a 30% hand when you are AI next hand if he folds.
obv, but the chance isn't 0%.
Can we assume sb will complete every time we call here? AJo has 45.958% ~46% EQ vs 2 random hands.
Price payout is 40%, 30%, 20%, 10%?
If we lose, our EQ obv 0%.
If we win, bb beats sb=
1 2145 16.543
2 12084 31.5815
3 6080 25.5002
4 6691 26.3754
If we win, sb wins bb. This gets trickier, but I assume it will cost us ~600 chips since bb will hit us before sb.
1 12000 31.8713
2 6000 25.9487
3 7000 27.3041
4 1500 14.8758
So that costs us 1,6% eq. Chance of sb beating bb is ~50% since both of them have random hands. 1.6%/2 0 = 0.8%.
46% = 16.5-0.8 = 15.7%
54% = 0
So our EQ after going all in is ~7.2%.
What is the EV of folding AJ (I'm doing this mostly for myself btw)?
I think we can assume KQs is pretty much the bottom of sb's complete range.
I assume he'd complete with this range: (6.5%) 88+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+. That range has 71% against any2.
So there is 6.5x0.29 chance sb will be eliminated = 1.88 ~ 1.9%
I'd also give at least 2% chance of someone else (inc sb) being eliminated in the next 2 hands, giving us total ~4% chance to cash before our bb.
In the following 2 hands, we have ~3.6% chance of being dealt JJ+, which is our condition for going broke. I assume we will be called twice, so we have about 61% (I slimmed the numbers a bit in case 3rd big stack wakes up with monster).
39% we lose
So 61% we win 715*3 =2145
After that will probly lose ~800 because sb is still in.
So, what happens in our BB.
Nash suggests
UTG 360.0 1.8%
CO 8000.0 11.2%
BU 6000.0 11.6%
SB 12000.0 100.0%
BB 715.0 0.091 0.0638
most common scenario is all but sb folding, giving us 50% to win, 50% to lose.
If we won, our EQ 12%
Lost 0%
~6% eq
Then 20% of time when co/bu wakes up.
25% to win 2245 (~15% eq)
75% to lose.
~ 3.75% eq
This is getting sooo tedious...
There is ~ 92% percent we will arrive like this to our BB.
4% bubble is already over and our EQ is ~13%
1.5% EQ 0%
2.5% EQ 14%
73.6% = 6%
18,4% = 3,75%
4x 13 1.5x 0 2.5x 14 73.6x6 18.4x 3.75 /100 = 5.976%
So assuming most things was calculated correctly it is better to shove AJ.
