Well, screw it!
Holding is 99. Preflop is capped. Flop is J9J. Opponent bets, I raise, he calls. Turn is 6. Opponent bets, I raise - he calls. The river is a J. Opponent bets. I call. I lose.
Next hand: Dealt 99 and 3-bet. We are three to see a 3Q9 flop. The flop is capped three ways. The turn is a Q. I just call on turn. I don't know why. I got confused, propably getting a bit clairvoyant about what was going to happen. (Third guy is all in.). River is a Q. Guess what? I lose.
These two hands may be the very last hands I ever played. I did play one more, didn't have time to press the "sit out button". It doesn't really count.
I have lost 350+ BB today playing a single table. I have been itching to whine in my whinery, but managed to calm myself down. "Cool down dude, you are just having a bit of a downswing". "You surely have an edge. These guys are playing (VPIP=80, PFR=5)" and (VPIP=50,PFR=50,3-bet100,cap=100, AF=100), i.e. they are Calling Stations and Maniacs and Whatever.
So, I return to the tables. I realize that my opponents aren't all that bright while waiting for the blinds to come to me. The above hands are hand #4 and #5. (The first hands I lose in a less blatant fashion.) It was probably best to keep this last horrible session as short as possible.
This is written by a player that is totally on tilt. Granted. But, what I am about to say is true nonetheless.
If you are a young aspiring poker professinal, and if you really really have the goods, then you would be an idiot to go for it.
If you are good enough to live off of poker, making decent money, then I'll bet that you have enough brains to make a hell of a lot more money in other areas of life.
Luck exists, if only in the rear view mirror. It doesn't matter at the end of the day wether you played better than god himself. It doesn't matter very much how well you manage that bankroll of yours. You may get unlucky i key spots anyway.
So, let's say (hypothetically) that I (or somebody) actually do have an edge of, say 2BB/100 hands. That's not chicken shit. To repair a 350 BB loss, well, then just play a few thousand hands and you'll be even. (Unless you are unlucky of course.)
You may correctly figure out that I haven't exacly lost $35 000 today. I have lost more like what I would say is a fistfull of dollars. It would buy me a decent luch, but no more.
You may also have figured out that I am not one of the best players in the world. This is true, but if I sit down at a small stakes table where people play, well, extremely badly, then I expect to be a little bit better than them at least.
The thing is that I used to take pleasure in playing, and trying to play well. I don't care about the money, but since the money (more correctly BB's) is the yardstick (the only yardstick) by which we actually measure how well somebody plays, then it's extremely disheartening to lose day by day, week by week, month by month.
Is poker a game of luck or is it a game of skill?
This used to be a question of some importance in Sweden. According to a Supreme Courts decision, tournaments are a game of skill. Cash games aren't. (Yes, lol).
One thing is perfectly clear. Luck is a huge factor. Too huge a factor to ever discount.
Of course, the knowing-it-all will say that I have to play hundreds of thousands of hands to even out the effect of luck. Thats just the point. If you happen to be good and talanted at tennis, and practice hard, you don't have to play (and lose) 50 000 matches before you finally win. In poker such a thing is to be expected.
If only they had played well ...
Or is it that I happen to play in a way (unknown to science) that is actually worse than, say limping 100% UTG, always call until the river, never raise before the river, always bet when checked to, never raise AA/KK first in, always 3- or 4-bet preflop if our limp is raised, systematically serial donk raised pots, always check-raise when an A appears on turn, floating hands that have absolutely minimum equity, bluff with A high on the river, checkraise small pockets on the river, draw at 3-outers for 3 bets, ...?
These people beat me. Not today, not last week, but every day, always. They even beat me fair and square sometimes. None of the two donks misplayed their full houses versus my flopped monsters in the hands accounted for at the top of the post.
/Johan =