[Closed] 22 NL25 SH - deepstacked set vs. 1-colour flop

nope, nh

Even deep stacked? With 100BB its easy all-in, but not with 200BB. What worse hands are moving all-in here?

Yes, its very close given you have 200BB and the board is ugly but I still call. The point is that Villain will never go broke with a weak hand here. He either has a Draw + Pair or gutshot or he has a higher set or he has the made flush. Against this range you are dog.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

47,520 games 0.001 secs 47,520,000 games/sec

Board: Kc Jc 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.270% 57.42% 00.85% 27285 405.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, KK, JJ, AcQc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }
Hand 1: 41.730% 40.88% 00.85% 19425 405.00 { 22 }

Now, if we have 41.7% equity, we own 42.11$. You have 39.95$ left --> its a "crying shove". Note that our play is a high variance play, but we earn 2$ by shoving vs. folding. Furthermore, there are some donkeys that may go broke lighter than the given range.

AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, KK, JJ, AcQc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs

Thats UTG`s range and against UTG it is easy, easy shove (BTW I`d add any A-A and A-K to his range, not just ones with ♣). But it is SB, not UTG who is moving in. His range hits this flop way more often than UTG as he might have suited connectors and A-xs (+ maybe J-J).

It really looks like protection raise with low flush. Villain seems reasonable and I think he wouldn`t slowplay in this spot.

Typically its bad to go broke for 200BB with AA w/o a FD. However, I agree that some players will go with that hand. I prefer evaluating the tight range and if its a call/shove there, its an even easier call/shove against a looser range.