Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
Hero ($160)
BB ($215)
BTN ($169)
Dealt to Hero K♦ T♦
BTN raises to $3, Hero calls $2.50, BB calls $2
FLOP ($9) K♣ T♥ 2♥
Hero bets $7, BB calls $7, BTN folds
TURN ($23) K♣ T♥ 2♥ J♣
Hero bets $20, BB raises to $50, Hero?
villain: 72/36
AF: 0.5
45 hands
notes:
CC AKo vs steal - ch/c ch ch K22r Ao Ao
Villain was very aggro pre, but rather passive postflop from what I had noticed so far.
So how would you play here OTT when facing a raise?
hmmm tricky, there is just one combo of TT left,
I think it depends if he has jt in his range or draws.
But a min raise is a nut hand most of the time since a draw should be raised more to get commited (but does the fish know this ♦ ♦)
Board: K♣T♥2♥ J♣
Equity Winst Split
BU 71.21% 71.21% 0.00% { KK+, JJ-TT, 22, KJs, JTs, KJo }
BB 28.79% 28.79% 0.00% { KdTd }
Board: K♣T♥2♥ J♣
Equity Winst Split
BU 71.21% 71.21% 0.00% { KK+, JJ-TT, 22, KJs, JTs, KJo }
BB 28.79% 28.79% 0.00% { KdTd }
Board: K♣T♥2♥ J♣
Equity Winst Split
BU 56.03% 56.03% 0.00% { KK+, JJ-TT, 22, KJs, JTs, AhJh, AcTc, Ac2c, KJo, JTo }
BB 43.97% 43.97% 0.00% { KdTd }
Cause you have no great read on the villain i would jam here, if you have bigger sample and know how passive he realy is i would fold (if he is realy that passive 0.5 over greater sample)
Originally posted by giraffe1977
hmmm tricky, there is just one combo of TT left,
I think it depends if he has jt in his range or draws.But a min raise is a nut hand most of the time since a draw should be raised more to get commited (but does the fish know this ♦ ♦)
Board: K♣T♥2♥ J♣
Equity Winst Split
BU 71.21% 71.21% 0.00% { KK+, JJ-TT, 22, KJs, JTs, KJo }
BB 28.79% 28.79% 0.00% { KdTd }
Cause you have no great read on the villain i would jam here, if you have bigger sample and know how passive he realy is i would fold (if he is realy that passive 0.5 over greater sample)
Why aren't you putting straights in his range?
AQo, and Q9s seem plausible hands for me.
And what about discounting some of the set combos since we can't really read much into his AF with that low of a sample?
Yeah he defo have all straights in his range, I mean he is playin 73/30x preflop so his range should be really wide.
Also notice the stacksizes - 160BBs
It's not a great spot at all but I think folding the turn is out of the question form an overall perspective. His stats are horrible as well because he's playing what looks like a lot of hands (72/36 we can assume his BTN open 5 will be much higher than 36) so he's likely with these stats to take a pretty wide/weak range to the turn. The reverse of this is that so far his AFF is low but as pointed out the sample is so small its not really worth noting.
I think call and call MOST rivers ( would prolly let A's, 9's and use your instinct on flush completing cards) is the best line. Loads of expoitative reasons to fold though, and tbh you're prolly beat.
Originally posted by lilDave
It's not a great spot at all but I think folding the turn is out of the question form an overall perspective. His stats are horrible as well because he's playing what looks like a lot of hands (72/36 we can assume his BTN open 5 will be much higher than 36) so he's likely with these stats to take a pretty wide/weak range to the turn. The reverse of this is that so far his AFF is low but as pointed out the sample is so small its not really worth noting.I think call and call MOST rivers ( would prolly let A's, 9's and use your instinct on flush completing cards) is the best line. Loads of expoitative reasons to fold though, and tbh you're prolly beat.
If we're prolly beat why would we want to call/call ? Sample size is really small and I can't really see him doing this with 1p or random Qx/fd... 
my post said from an overall perspective we prolly can't fold, but there'd be loads of vacuum reasons to fold. In this spot specifically I'd be secretly wanting to find a reason to fold, the small sample is a good reason. The point remains though that you cant fold this spot 100% of the time.
