Calculating expected value of an all-in in HU HYPERTURBO

please someone help me, im hopeless

that's the correct formula except that he wouldn't only fold 10% of the time.. he would fold much more

assumming the following ranges, which would be standard for many regs, opening 75% and calling a shove 15%, it would mean that he is folding 80% of the time and not 10% as you said in your calculations

Yeah but its not a reg cause he's opening 100 chips on the first hand. It's obviously a crazy fish. And a crazy fish that opens t100 out of t500 that he has behind just wants to gamble in my opinion. So I think he is folding max. 20 %.

Or am I being too pessimistic?

Just fold, at beast its really marginaly +ev, if he opens 5x first hand = fish, you will have later spots to to get max +ev.

Also imo most likely its -ev, vs connected offsuit hands you are around 40:60 fav, vs connected suited 50:50 and a ton of his range dominates you 70:30 + i have seen people 4x fold but not 5x fold so fold equity is very very low, Im sure someone is able to 5x fold ♦

Assuming the big blind is $20, Villain opens top 40% and calls top 20%, your EV would be:

50% x $120 + 50% x (-480 + 42% x $1000)

I.e. 50% he folds (given my simplified assumptions above of a 40% open and 20% call, feel free to change accordingly) and you win his $100 open + your $20 blind as we're calculating EV relative to folding, and 50% he calls in which case you are paying 480 to get back the 42% equity (that A3o has against a range of top 20%) in a $1000 pot.

Oh thanks collin. Thats a simplified method of what I wrote right? But my method is more natural for me, it comes to me without thinking about a way of calculating it.

So according to you Collin it is a +t30 EV push right? But isn't it a bit too optimistic to say that he folds 50% of the time?