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[Sunday Big $11] JJ

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Maartinss
Joined: 05.10.2010

Was near to money - about 1k players left.
For me, it was a tough to fold JJ in this spot and certainly will push all-in if there wasn't 3Bet all-in.

PokerStars - $10+$1|300/600 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

UTG+1: 36,086.00
MP: 69,385.00 [39/27/9/51 - VPIP/PR/3Bet/hands][/B]
MP+1: 24,973.00
LP: 32,180.00
CO: 19,628.00 [20/7/5/46]
BTN: 63,706.00
Hero (SB): 10,884.00
BB: 15,812.00
UTG: 21,552.00

UTG+1 posts ante 70.00, MP posts ante 70.00, MP+1 posts ante 70.00, LP posts ante 70.00, CO posts ante 70.00, BTN posts ante 70.00, Hero posts ante 70.00, BB posts ante 70.00, UTG posts ante 70.00, Hero posts SB 300.00, BB posts BB 600.00

Pre Flop: (1530.00) Hero has J♥ J♦

fold, fold, MP raises to 1,800.00, fold, fold, CO raises to 19,558.00 and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold

Spoiler

CO shows A♥ K♦ ()
CO wins 5,130.00


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3 replies
Asaban
Joined: 22.09.2006

It's obviously a hard decision. Since your opponent has been really tight a fold might make sense. On the other hand I don't think that he will push hands like KK+ immediatly. His range is more like 77-QQ and AQs+ imo. Against this range your equity is really good and a call would be the right decision. In the end it all comes down to your opponent and your reads on him.

Regards,
Asaban


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Bzzz2906
Joined: 10.03.2010

I disagree.

Villain is not tight, he's 20/7/5 after only 46 hands. With this 3-bet, he will have at least 8-9% of 3-bet.


       Equity  Victoire  Égalité
MP2    53.48%    52.43%    1.04% { JdJh }
MP3    46.52%    45.48%    1.04% { QQ-99, AdAh, AhAs, AhAc, KdKh, KhKs, KhKc, AQs+, AQo+ }

Pretty easy, easy, easy broke.


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Asaban
Joined: 22.09.2006

If his 3betting stat is 5% he 3bets 5% - not 8 or 9%. Furthermore a 3bet amount based on 46 hands doesn't have any meaningfulness. It basically means that he 3betted 2 hands before. That's not relevant and can't give you any hints on his general 3betting range.
By the way: A 3betting range won't help you when you try to evaluate his 3bet-pushing range. It's absolutely independent from each other in most cases.

20/7 stats are a lot more significant. It seems like he is fairly passive up to this point.

Like I already mentioned: His range is more like 77-QQ and AQs+ then it is QQ+, AK. If he is very passive up to this point it might still get a close spot where you basically depend on your reads.

In the end it is not easy at all. You give yourself 53% while discounting KK+ and giving him hands like 99 or AQo at the same time. If you don't discount KK+ the equities get very close:
MP2 49.81% 48.85% 0.96% 99+, AQs+, AQo+
MP3 50.19% 49.23% 0.96% JJ

You should also realize that he pushes >30BB. It's not a standard resteal-spot where we would have an easy call. There is no need to gamble it up with our stack in this spot. In most cases the call will be the best play anyways. But there are possible szenarios where you have to fold against a tight/passive opponent.

Regards,
Asaban


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