NL10 SH 44 Set

Well first of all i think you should raise the flop bigger so you don't give him the right odds to draw with a DESD or a FD (or maybe both)... he limped/called PF so he could very well have a two pair or an over pair like 77 vs with you`re fine(65% vs 77) so you could call a shove.

After he just calls and that ugly card came in on the turn i would simply bet/fold (bet could be small as well... because if he`s got an over pair like 99s or just overcards with a FD being the passive guy he look he is he won't raise you with that.

P.s. If the board would pair on the river you could easly put the money in because he would most likely almost never just call(the turn)with a bigger set(now FH) on a such draw heavy board.

Flop: If you go for a x/rai here I would make a pot sized raise on the flop. Especially since the board is very draw heavy and we are OOP, therefore it is more difficult for us to extract value and we want to set up for a turn shove for value anyway.

Pot sized raise = 2x opp's bet + current total pot
= (1.20 x 2) + (1.20 + 1.35 )
= 2.40 + 2.55 = $4.95

This makes for an easy turn shove IMO, but it is more likely that the money will go in on the flop in this scenario. So in this instance we don't encounter the problem of whether to c/c the turn or not.

We are only really in bad shape against bigger sets in this case and still have ten outs against made straights. If he has a bigger set on this board then it's a cooler IMO given the board texture.

We could also DB since the board is draw heavy and we are multiway. We want to extract value from TP's,OP's weaker 2pr's, and draws and really don't want to see a check behind. It is quite possible that the PFA'r will check behind on such a wet board in MWP since he will rarely get folds and can only rep OP's or made hands.

As played...

Turn

I would expect villain to l/c pre with something like 22-99, and some broadways and connectors and AX. When he DB's/calls the flop I would put him on something like TP+, draws or 77+. By the turn we are only beating 99, draws and 2pr. I don't like c/c'ing the Turn since we still don't want to see a check behind and there are still weaker hands in his range that would still call a value bet.

I also think he is more likely to check behind his marginal hands and draws and only bet IP when checked to with hands that beat us, so we lose value when we are ahead. Especially since we took a very strong line by x/raising on the flop.

Overall I think you can either, shove/bet-call or c/f the turn.

Hello Alleen86,

Flop: You have to raise it bigger here, you have to protect. Whilst is so super-drawy. Also while our normal pot size raise might go towards even over 1/2 stack I might just ship it directly here. There are tons of cards which we don't want to see.

As played
Turn: Depends a lot what kind of player he is like W$SD and etc stats. It's hard to analyze only from few stats. Also like for example what's his limp/Calling range? If it's towards PPs mainly then what do you have beat there? Not much and might even Check/Fold it instead. So take a look at limping range + W$SD.

Best Regards.