[Closed] A10 on a 10 high flop

IMHO with a flop like 10 4 3 its pretty hard for him to hit that unless he has 44 or 33 i reckon, so another possible hand would be over pockets like JJ QQ KK AA or maybe AK. But with a hand like QQ-AA or a set i dont think he's throwing in such a big check raise on such a dry board and i would have expected him to 3-bet u preflop...so the chances of him having QQ-AA is pretty low, the boards also completely dry as its so draw free. I think as soon as he checked the turn his hand was gone unless he manages to hit an overcard but i think u might have missed value on this hand from middle pockets and AK or AQ hands.

I think its negative EV to make that bet on the river if u were pot controlling on the turn, if u think ur behind u probably shud have checked and if ur read tells u ur ahead u prolly shud have value betted the turn and river.

I dont have a read on the player because i dunno how he plays...but from how the hand played out i would put him on air/making a play or he's got middle pockets.

Thats how i think anyways anyone else have any other thoughts ?

nice post hamusuta !

as mintogo said willain is a good tag, so he is check/raising dry flops like this one because he expects you to cbet a very big % if not 100% of your range here and you shouldn't have connected with that board most the time so a check/raise bluff is very good here. He would play sets the same way to balance and get paid off.

Once you call his raise, he gives up unless he hits a magic card if he even has a draw(trips draw, 2-pair draw, whatever)

riverbet doesn't make any sense, if he was really good, he would shove over the top and you would have to fold. You're not getting value from 88 or 99 here (assuming he even made that flop play with these hands, which would be strange)

when someone c/r dry flop, gets called and checks the turn
I usually put him on unsuccessful bluff or semi-bluff
and i think thats actually common for low-midstakes players
they are capable of picking up spots to c/r (semi)bluff, but don't follow up on turn, unless they hit

so, if you decide to bet this hand, it makes more sense to bet(/fold) turn, imo
at least no freecards for hands like KQ/KJ and value from draws/redraws

I like the line on the flop. However, I'd bet the turn smallish after he shows weakness. If he calls, i take a free SD on the river.

Originally posted by Thorsten77
However, I'd bet the turn smallish after he shows .

how small?

Originally posted by xylere

Originally posted by Thorsten77
However, I'd bet the turn smallish after he shows .

how small?

about 0.0006378462829cents

Originally posted by xylere

Originally posted by Thorsten77
However, I'd bet the turn smallish after he shows .

how small?

slightly more than half pot, maybe 15$-17$. This is pretty much always a bluff from a middle pocket pair or KQ-KJ, rarely JT or T9, so I'd bet on the turn to take down the pot (and not let him catch his outs on the river), but you could also check twice to see his hand. cb turn and bet river is a mistake imo. If you do bet, then bet around 13-15$

Yes, little more than 1/2 Pot: i want to punish semibluffs that have a few outs, i.e., 2 overcards or an OESD.