My winrate is 15% of what it should be over 70,000 hands

Your graph's not showing, at least for me

Luckily I have had a few modest tourney cashes to allow me to go NL2->NL5->NL10...

I guess all I want to ask is how unlucky is this

So.. you were lucky by winning a few tournies and now you are unlucky (or at least you think you are)?

I don't see anything abnormal if that's the case

Really? Its showing fine for me...

If you can't see its basically a consistently widening gap between EV bb won and bb won, at 70k hands they are at:

EV BB won: 1750
BB won: 250

only 15bi? you can win that in a good day ♦.

not seeing it as well.

Ev bb isn't the ultimate measure of "true" level, as many people think - it doesn't work at all in multiway pots, it's completely screewed if you are unliky enough to run into coolers over and over again etc etc.

May I ask what is your bb/100 for nl2, nl5 and nl10?

SchnitzelF, Isn't it 30BI, since ptBB are two big blinds?

And pblankfield, when I said luckily it was more a manner of speech, just two Sunday Storms I satellited into and won $60 and $30, fairly standard. Also busted out of several as well without cashing. And, they are 5.7bb/100, 3.1bb/100 and 1.59bb/100 for NL2,5,10 respectively but I believe they should be higher.

Does this graph image work?

Yeah now it works

Your graphs are fine - both lines follow the same trend overall. Nothing to worry about, you are not unlucky at all.

Also I might be wrong (I'm not a cash game specialist at all and the stats have a different meaning in tourneys) but isn't EvBB the expected value at showdown while bb won is simply the sum of "won with" and "without showdown"? If that's the case the "gap" is simply coming from the hands you fold and it's perfectly normal

Again not being a specialist but 1.6bb on NL10 seems a little low - I think you can expect some pretty ugly downswings with this kind of win rate.

Yeah pblankfield that's not how it works. Expected Value does include non-sd winnings, it just moves exactly with it. The gap comes from losing equity in all-ins, so the average expected value of my plays where the money got all in and the actual amount won from these all ins differs by 1500 poker tracker Big Bets (BB= 2 big blinds). As you approach infinite number of hands, the difference between all in equity and amount won should be 0. So to be 30BI below EV for my all ins over 70000 hands is significant bad luck in my opinion, but I don't know a great deal about poker so I am curious as to how standard it is. I am assuming to me as a beginner it is a lot bigger a deal than someone who has played a lot.

Back to my initial question if anyone can answer it, all I want to know is how to run a variance calculator to see the numerical likelyhood of being 1500 ptBB below the expected value. I know its weird but knowing it will bring me some peace of mind.

Originally posted by pblankfield
Also I might be wrong (I'm not a cash game specialist at all and the stats have a different meaning in tourneys) but isn't EvBB the expected value at showdown while bb won is simply the sum of "won with" and "without showdown"? If that's the case the "gap" is simply coming from the hands you fold and it's perfectly normal

That is wrong.

EV line shows the expected value when there is a showdown. When there is no showdown, your EV line will follow your green line. There is no "gap" because of the folded hands.

For example:
You go AI preflop AA vs KK and win - your EV line will show +80bb and your green line (bb won) will show +100bb (approximately)
Next hand you win another 50bb, but villain folds on the river - Your EV line will show +130bb and your green line will show +150bb

EDIT: meh...to slow, metza already answered

Yeah, I suspected that my answer might be wrong, thanks both - I learned something today

As for a variance calculator you can play around with:
http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/

You'll also need standard deviation stat. It gives you a pretty good idea of how variance can be harsh, especially with a low bb/100 win rate.

I feel for you met, this is pretty bad especially when first playing micros.<3

Originally posted by metza
SchnitzelF, Isn't it 30BI, since ptBB are two big blinds?

2 good days then ♦. Things can change very fast in poker. Just focus on constantly fixing your leaks and the results will come as well :). Your EV line goes up pretty nicely, so it shouldn't really be a problem ;).

-SF

Originally posted by Schnitzelfisch

Originally posted by metza
SchnitzelF, Isn't it 30BI, since ptBB are two big blinds?

2 good days then ♦. Things can change very fast in poker. Just focus on constantly fixing your leaks and the results will come as well :). Your EV line goes up pretty nicely, so it shouldn't really be a problem ;).

-SF

Yet it still is a problem lol. The two lines really seem totally independent for me. At the moment it appears my biggest leak has been getting my money in good :f_biggrin:.

Where are these good days? Over the last few days its gotten even worse, constant bad beats and coolers.

I played down at NL2 today to regain confidence, and instead got 2 outered 6 times with AA/KK vs mid pocket pairs. Five times money gets all in on the flop overpair vs their middle pair which of course they go all in with and boom five goddamn times they two outer me. Sixth time AA vs TT in 3bet pot, flop T92 rainbow, can't get away from AA vs NL2 donkos. So of course I pay him off.

Also a few days ago when my bankroll was pretty good, I thought I could have a 1BI attempt at NL50 HU shortstacked since its only 2.5BI at my current limit. I started crushing the guy, turning $25 into $100, and then this crap happened. Every single street he makes an obscenely bad mistake yet the money goes his way. AA vs 69o in 3bet pot: http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/1186773_8D8FF6E30F

This is the type of player who is the reason I can't win. If I was getting outplayed by regs I'd be fine with that. But even most of the regs at NL10 suck, and I have no problems against them. It makes me sick, taking these fish to valuetown only to have them river a hidden gutshot. The worst part is that when I tilt and play as bad as them, seems to be the only time I can actually win a pot.

I'm in a pretty bad spot where it seems like there is no correlation at all between how I play and whether I win or not. To add to this feeling, is my recent look at my tournament EV line:

I know I'm not, but it feels like I'm the unluckiest poker player ever. My whole time playing poker is just lost equity.

[/whine]

Tbh if you take a shot at NL50 HU when you're running bad you'll be going busto in no time. It doesn't matter if it's only 2.5BI at your current limit because the variance in both HU games and shortstacked games is significantly higher than in 100bb SH or FR play.

The only way to get through running bad it volume. Yeah you're running below EV but so do a lot of other players. To put it into perspective, this guy is 500BI under EV over a large sample:

Sure it's higher variance games but it certainly puts your 30BI under EV into perspective right?

Originally posted by metza

Originally posted by Schnitzelfisch

Originally posted by metza
SchnitzelF, Isn't it 30BI, since ptBB are two big blinds?

2 good days then ♦. Things can change very fast in poker. Just focus on constantly fixing your leaks and the results will come as well :). Your EV line goes up pretty nicely, so it shouldn't really be a problem ;).

-SF

Yet it still is a problem lol. The two lines really seem totally independent for me. At the moment it appears my biggest leak has been getting my money in good :f_biggrin:.

Where are these good days? Over the last few days its gotten even worse, constant bad beats and coolers.

I played down at NL2 today to regain confidence, and instead got 2 outered 6 times with AA/KK vs mid pocket pairs. Five times money gets all in on the flop overpair vs their middle pair which of course they go all in with and boom five goddamn times they two outer me. Sixth time AA vs TT in 3bet pot, flop T92 rainbow, can't get away from AA vs NL2 donkos. So of course I pay him off.

Also a few days ago when my bankroll was pretty good, I thought I could have a 1BI attempt at NL50 HU shortstacked since its only 2.5BI at my current limit. I started crushing the guy, turning $25 into $100, and then this crap happened. Every single street he makes an obscenely bad mistake yet the money goes his way. AA vs 69o in 3bet pot: http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/1186773_8D8FF6E30F

This is the type of player who is the reason I can't win. If I was getting outplayed by regs I'd be fine with that. But even most of the regs at NL10 suck, and I have no problems against them. It makes me sick, taking these fish to valuetown only to have them river a hidden gutshot. The worst part is that when I tilt and play as bad as them, seems to be the only time I can actually win a pot.

I'm in a pretty bad spot where it seems like there is no correlation at all between how I play and whether I win or not. To add to this feeling, is my recent look at my tournament EV line:

I know I'm not, but it feels like I'm the unluckiest poker player ever. My whole time playing poker is just lost equity.

[/whine]

In the bolded sentences, you are focusing on the things that you don't have much of an effect on. Also, taking shots on higher limits without the proper bankroll management = gambling and will only make you go broke sooner.

So again, focus on improving in the areas that you can - your mental game, your poker game, your learning process etc. If you want to be a winning player, stop wasting your time by whining and start doing the things that will make you a better poker player ;).

-SF

You're definitely right SF, I think at the moment the thing that needs the most work is my poker mindset.

I have been considering for a while now to read Jared Tendler's book Mental Game of Poker and learned yesterday that I can get an audiobook of it for free so there's absolutely no reason not to. Positive Mindset here I come.

@Wriggers, that graph actually helped a lot.

I think that's definitely a step in the right direction :). Good luck on your journey!

-SF

Thats a pretty small deviaton, probably like a 30% chance your running good not bad all in ev is a small factor

all in ev has variance too. it isn't what you whould have won.