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AQ 2p value bet river?

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13BlackCats
Joined: 16.08.2008

PartyGaming - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $11.56
BB: $8.53
UTG: $24.30
Hero (CO): $26.29
BTN: $25.58

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has A♠ Q♦

UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $1.00

Flop: ($2.85, 2 players) Q♣ A♥ 7♥
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.03, UTG calls $2.03

Turn: ($6.91, 2 players) T♠
UTG checks, Hero bets $5.00, UTG calls $5.00

River: ($16.91, 2 players) 8♥
UTG checks, Hero ???

Villain= 29/10/6.5/26 (VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS) 62h

One pot size bet left...is there any value in betting?
We only get called by a few worse hands aka AJ and maybe A9 vs a lot of better ones so we should check


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hi.

He seems like a bad player to me (29/10). I think he has many more AX hands than heart flushes. Therefore I think you have a value bet on the River.

Main thing is the sizing. Should we shove or bet small? And should we bet/call or bet/fold if we bet small?

1) Shove - Best option against a huge calling station. Don't think this guy may necessarily fall in that category.
2) Bet to 7 or 8 and fold to a raise - Best option against someone who is passive, and may not necessarily call an allin with a wide range, but never folds AX to a halfpot bet
3) Bet/call - Doesn't really make sense unless our small bet induces bluffs.

I think my preferred option is 2, followed by 1. I just dont think this guy would raise River with worse than a flush but I could be wrong and he may shove with worse 2 pairs.


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