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Quick maths question

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This is probably very easy but...

I have 8♣ 9♣
Flop= J♣ 7 :club: k :heart:

I have 13 outs here (9 clubs and 4 tens) to hit a flush or straight, so...

13/47= 27.7% for turn
13/46= 28.3% for river

How do I calculate my odds for hitting a flush or a straight on either street? I take it you don't just add the two together!


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12 replies
ColorFlusher
Joined: 19.01.2008

You have 12 outs. 9 clubs and 3 tens as one of the tens is a club.

(35/47)*(34/46) is the possibility you don't hit either street.

so the possibility you are looking for is

1-(35/47)*(34/46) = 486/1081 = 0,45


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Let's be generous and count the Tc since it gives him a straight flush.

so its what he said, but slightly better.
Nice hand!


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jbpatzer
Joined: 23.11.2009

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Let's be generous and count the Tc since it gives him a straight flush.

so its what he said, but slightly better.
Nice hand!

No. He counted it twice. :facepalm:


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UPAY4DINNER
Joined: 28.09.2009

Moving this thread to the relevant board :)


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gadget51
Joined: 23.06.2008

Hey crox1710,

If you were to click the link at the bottom of this post, you would be taken to the NL Beginners course, where you could ask the coaches all sorts of questions about odds/outs/implied odds/reverse implied odds and anything else poker - and often non poker - related and it's totally free to join! Cool idea or what? Check it out and see for yourself. :)

http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/bss/1992/1/

Hope this helps,

Mal.


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TJtheTJ
Joined: 12.10.2011

Just a small correction, the beginner's course can be found here: http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/bss/1992/1/

The link in the above post leads to the coaching schedule :)


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UPAY4DINNER
Joined: 28.09.2009

Thank you TinoLaan the above is now edited :)


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Thanks for the response. Yeah I counted 10c twice.... :f_frown:


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Just to add, a quick and easy method is to use the multiples of 2 and 4 which will give you a very good estimate

On the flop 12 outs x4= 48% to hit by river

On the turn 12 outs x2 = 24% to hit on river :)


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That is the method I use as well but I was told the formula was the following:

Turn = #outs x 4 then add 2
River = #outs x 2 then add 2

Is this the most effect quick way to determine math on odds of hitting?


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

I use something in between. For the next card it's (where X is our outs) X*2+2 for the next card and X*4 for flop and turn combined. That is usually accurate enough in playing situation.

Example

You have a flush draw, 9 outs. Chance to hit it on the next card is 9*2+2=20. That is precisely right. Chance to hit on flop or turn is 9*4=36 which is almost 35 which is the correct answer.


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So drop the "add 2" on the river.........awesome and thanks!


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