he opens on BU super wide something like 70% but he does not go bonkers on me when i 3bet, the last time he shoved on me was in blinds positions with 99
he calls 3bet wide once BU vs BB with KT and he very obviously knows my range in BB and SB is strong at about 10-15% against him.
with the KT hand he floated J72r facing my CB. when checked to on J turn (dry turn) he did not bet. 7 river came and he bet as bluff.
there was once he checked back flop with 77 on JQ2, i bluffed blank turn and rivers and he called my bluff 2 streets he was BU and i was BB
HAND IN QUESTION
Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:
$0.5/$1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
Known players:
[tg]BU$127.26:///////;SB$100.00:///////;BB (Hero)$155.07:///////;MP2$113.95:///////;MP3$245.38:///////;CO$100.00:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is BB with 6:s, A:s.
MP2 folds, MP3 calls $1.00, CO folds, BU raises to $4.50, SB folds, Hero calls $3.50, MP3 folds.
Flop: ($10.5) J:h, Q:d, 3:s (2 players)
Hero checks, BU checks.
Turn: ($10.5) 7:d (2 players)
Hero bets $7.00, BU raises to $20.00, Hero folds, BU gets uncalled bet back.
Final Pot: $17.5.
questions
1. i am thinking of 3betting the flop since i know he would call a lot worse. from stats 70% X 50% call is a range of 35%, maybe he isnt so wide, lower like 20%?
2. he is not folding the flop to a bet unless of course i bet into the fish when the fish calls.
3. 3betting could fold out the reg and get the fish to call and fold to a CB on the flop since my 3bet into the fish is strong and he knows that
4. betting the flop and turn folds out mostly weaker hands and that is as good as turning my hand into a bluff
5. bet flop chk turn and call river seems too optimistic to bluffcatch on river and he would check back medium strength hands that beat me.
6. bet flop chk turn bet river also folds out mostly worse hands. he is calling me there with a J
7. i think a line like bet flop bet turn and bet river could fold out a hand like QT, i have never seen him call me when i take that line
known opponent stats
hand size 1.1k but we have more history then that
fold to CB flop 38% (19 samples) accurate i know he floats wide
raise CB flop 27% (19 samples)
turn call CB 100% (5 samples) not sure about this
BU steal 69%
vs resteal call 33% (27 samples)
vs resteal 4bet 15% (27 samples)
WTS 23 but this is probably lower against me, however his stats dont show much deviation against me. he is not 3betting me wide in fact he is 3betting me much tighter than usual.
i gotta crack this dude.
