Hi,
MP: $200 (100 bb)
CO: $419.69 (209.8 bb)
Hero (BTN): $200 (100 bb)
SB: $272.77 (136.4 bb)
BB: $257.19 (128.6 bb)
UTG: $150.84 (75.4 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q
A
3 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB folds, BB raises to $14.70, Hero calls $10.70
Flop: ($30.40) 3
A K
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $17.05, BB calls $17.05
Turn: ($64.50) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $44, BB raises to $225.44 and is all-in, Hero folds
Results:
Spoiler
$152.50 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 3 A K 8
Hero mucked Q A and lost (-$75.75 net)
BB mucked and won $149.50 ($73.75 net)
Villain is 24/17 , 3b 8% blinds vs Btn in 4.3k hands. Folds >60% to 4bets so i think no point in transforming hand in bluff so preflop only play is to call.
cbets in 3b pot 73% and check calls 47% of time on flop(and check folds 53% ,no check raises) and check raised at that point 1/5 on turn.
so what is my play? i think flop is standard bet in position since he is folding half the time but maybe it isn't since his cbet in 3b pot so big?
Turn maybe his range looks something like this : KK+, AKs, KhQh, AsJs, AsTs, As5s, AKo (and i have 34% eq against that range and pot odds 31% ) . Is the assesment correct or what does his range ussually look like here? ( i put just a combo of A5ss but he can def have A4-2 )
I have some notes on him that he doesn't like to fold very much esp in 3b pot like 77 on AA3/T and that overall he takes some outside the box lines but nothing too concrete.
I know that i'm supposed to usually call here because that's why i'm playing AQ to dominate some smaller aces of his range or some Q's but it felt so much like the nuts .
Thanks!