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[Closed] 1/2 SH overthinking?

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I'm getting too tired to play now, so I post my last couple of hands for the night.

1/2 Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 6 players) Hero is BTN K♠ A♥
UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 4-bets, CO calls, Hero calls

Flop: T♠ A♣ 9♠ (14.5 SB, 3 players)
UTG+1 bets, 1 fold, Hero calls

Turn: J♠ (8.2 BB, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls

River: 6♠ (12.2 BB, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

[Results Hidden]

On the river my thoughts went like this: Villain is a TAG on the tight end, so range for cap preflop is TT+, AQ, AK. After I pop him on the turn and he only calls, I can rule out AA, TT, JJ since he would raise the sets.
When 4-flush arrives on river he checks. Now if I bet, he will checkraise AsKx, AsQx, and I have to call. There is a big chance he will fold any A combo not containing Qs (?), as well as KK. This leaves AdQs, QsQx to call. So I will gain one bet from these hands if I bet, but loose 2 bets against his raising hands. Ergo I checked behind.

I would appreciate some comments on my line of reasoning!


4 replies

Hi Foxxxen,

this hand is a bit more complicate so I used Equilator ( http://www.pokerstrategy.com/software/6/ ).
You said he was a bit tighter so your range is actually even too loose as TT+, AKs, AKo is the PS.com range.

Board: Ac Js Ts 9s
Dead:

Equity Gewonnen UnentschiedenVerloren Hand
Spieler 1: 39.394 % 30.985 % 16.818 % 52.197 % TT+, AQs+, AQo+
Spieler 2: 60.606 % 52.197 % 16.818 % 30.985 % AhKs

60% looks good but I don't like raising here anyway. You have no fold equity against better hands. You will only 3-bet by better hands but folding isn't possible. You have to make a bad call at the river even if you know that you are beat as the pot is so huge.
You lose less if you are beat but you often win the same if you improve on the river.

On the river your equity is indeed worse if you give him this range:

Board: Ts Ac 9s Js 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.000% 40.00% 00.00% 4 0.00 { AhKs }
Hand 1: 60.000% 60.00% 00.00% 6 0.00 { QcQs, QdQs, QhQs, AcKs, AdKs, AhKs, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AcQs, AdQs, AhQs, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh }

On the other hand he might often donk his flush as he has to fear a check behind by twopairs.
I couldn't check this behind but I don't know him too.


TerrorBlade
Joined: 16.10.2007

Wait wtf....

How can you not bet this on the river? No self respecting tag will check the ace of spades OOP with fear of a check behind unless he knows his opponent inside and out that he will bet 95%+ of the time.

The truth is a lot of worse hands would still call here like other AK combinations with the river being 12BB large already and people don't always play logically according to their ranges. I'd say this is for sure overthinking I'd ignore the maths in this case. Think about this from his point of view, how would you play Qs or As? Bet river. However if hes holding a non-flush hand against a TAG he will decide between possibly bet/fold or most likely check/call to avoid marginal situations and bluff induce.

Bet/call river. Because from then (after a raise) probably only Qs and As are only likely possibilities. Otherwise you played the hand well =)

It's good to see such a complex analysis though well done

My guess, he had a hand you didn't put him on out of the range! (tell me what he had!)


KQ :spade: of course. ;)


Well, morning is here, and I see everything with new eyes =)

@cirith: ty for the equilation, I have now dowloaded equilator so I will try to do it myself next time! Seems a nice piece of software.

@Terrorblade:

Wait wtf....

heh, I totally agree with you today.
Indeed he had a hand outside the range I gave him, 88.

Maybe I should play without stats, they just confuse me :P