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0.5/1 Sh 99

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kavboj84
Joined: 16.06.2011

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9 9
UTG folds, MP calls, CO calls, BTN raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, MP calls, CO calls, BTN calls

Flop: (15 SB) 4 6 2 (5 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP folds, CO calls, BTN calls

Turn: (9.5 BB) 7 (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, CO calls, BTN calls

River: (13.5 BB) Q (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, CO checks, BTN bets, Hero calls, BB folds, CO raises and is all-in, BTN folds, Hero calls

Results:

Spoiler

18.1 BB pot (0.5 BB rake)
Final Board: 4 6 2 7 Q
CO showed T 8 and lost (-4.8 BB net)
BTN mucked and lost (-4 BB net)
Hero showed 9 9 and won 17.6 BB (12.8 BB net)
BB mucked and lost (-3 BB net)

Hi,

Stats (VP/PF/3B/FST/ DBF/AF/WTSD/W$SD [handcount])

MP3,CO,BU: complete unknown
BB: 29/16/3,6/50/2,6/38/67 [96]- seems to be a bit weird, reads:

- capped 99 in vs a nit SB on the BU
- after this pre cap he raised the flop with 99 on a Kh low low dry board vs the nits donk (a tad overplayed IMO)
- open limps 96s MP
- raised with OESD
- donks top pair

looking at his stats he looks like some TAG/weaktight player, but his play resembles rather to a loose aggressive donkey, but he is definitely not loose and looks more straightforward. His overall coldcalling range preflop is 16%, tho the sample size is small .

I think until the river its std. On the river I thought I didnt have a value bet, and I definitely didnt want to get raised so my plan was to x/c or x/f depending on action. If BB had bet, I may have even decided x/f, cause I dont know what else could he have had there than then a flush or a Qx. I dont expect him to bluff in this position and I think his value range had me completely crushed.
CO could have had everything really, the question was BU but I think I had the odds to call then. Even with CO x/r-ing in the end I had to call.

Estimated ranges of the opponents on the river that they dont fold (before any action):


Board: 2♦6♣4♣ 7♠ Q♣
       Equity   Win  Tie
CO          9.72%   9.58%     0.14% { 77-22, A9s-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q3s+, J5s+, T5s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, AJo-A2o, KJo-K2o, Q5o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
BU         44.52%  42.11%     2.42% { 55, AQs, A9s, A7s-A6s, KQs, K9s, Q9s+, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, JcTc, Ac8c, Ac5c, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }
SB          5.13%   5.13%     0.00% { 9h9c }
BB         40.62%  38.27%     2.35% { 55, 33, AQs, KQs, QTs+, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, JcTc, AQo }

My questions are:

- is my plan on the river OK ?
- is it OK to call 2bets from CO or BU ?


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firsttsunami
Joined: 23.01.2006

So it's not terrible to check this card and see what happens. It may save you a bet and you may get off the hand without having invested any amount. Q no :club: i'd bet and it's certainly ok to bet this card as well as you will normally get an honest respond.

If BB raises with 2 opponents left to act and he's reasonable from the stats, it's always a stronger hand but it would suck if bb folds and you'll be facing a raise by CO or bB. Since they are both unknown and some straightdraws are still busted and the pot is just too big, you have to call and you said you'd have to fold if bb bets and the other opponents are going to fold. You are right that a bet by bb looks strong but always consider how big the pot has become. You would get odds of 1:15,5.

You should not really fold a pair there. The chance to be still ahead just needs to be really small and call can always be just a small mistake whereas fold can be a huge mistake. So in doubt you should always better call and see a showdown than deciding to fold. Both options have its pros and cons. I don't mind checking. You may save a bet, you may induce a bluffbet from a busted draw, you may get out cheap whereas bet may induce a call from a worse hand that would have chosen to take a free showdown.

If you have further questions, don't hesitate :)


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