Folding AK on wet board

Originally posted by sim5sim5
My thinking was i am very much behind 6x to Jx & villian will not make his A high a bluff against my 3 betting range from sb

villian is

Spoiler

The Great Boomer

Potentially untrue :f_biggrin:. Crappy A-highs are garbage on this board so I potentially would turn the worst of them into bluffs

First of all let's analyse the assumption you've made on my range.

Now, unfortuantely for you, I do not raise anything (currently) in position in a 3-bet pot HUHU so all you can defer from my flop call is that I don't have the worst 16-18% of hands in my Button range

In this case it means I'm peeling pretty damn wide.

So on the turn you check which is fine and I bet:

Now here I'm going to be betting my top hands, of course but I will also have hands I'm turning into bluffs so looking on those:

I am offering you 2 into 8.5 to call down meaning I should have a blufifng ratio of about 20% of my overall betting range.

Assuming I bet all Hands QQ+ on this board for value once you check, which I think it ok but may be a little wide then I actually have to turn all my hands AQ- into bluffs which includes a few combos of A-High and a lot of K-high/Q-high trashy FDs as well as all combinations of KQ.

So your original assumption is not correct that I wouldn't bluff A-high here, in fact if I wish to remain balanced I HAVE to bluff A-high here.

From your side of the equation:

On the turn you will have a lot of worse hands that AK.

Now obviously some of these you're going to bet as bluffs so I'm going to narrow it down to your checking range:

Now this is another situation where you should probably bet your worst A-highs as a bluff on the turn, assuming you do then your line is just about perfect (it's borderline whether you should fold AK on the turn but AQ is probably your cutoff).

So from a balanced perspective check/call, check/fold is pretty much the perfect line here but not because I'll never bluff A-high. It's because if you do call down with A-high here you will basically be over-calling down from the moment you check the turn.

Actual result, I had J7o

Thanks boomer i agree with you my reason is incorrect & i need to re look at few things in future

But honestly with a hand like AQ or AK do we need to bet river on such board IP against 3 betting range of SB when we are closing the action ?

I can understand we do need to mix few things but on a longer term u think it is a +EV against unkown opponent ?

With AQ-AK probably no on the river becasue your range has changed from the turn so they will move into your check back range but I will certainly be double barrelling my worse A-Highs and missed FDs etc

Vs a normal reg I'd say they'd probably be over-foldy on this board so if I was going to do anything it'd be bluff more than balance would dictate. But yes playing this way is profitable because:

1) You're not exploitable
2) Most regs will probably be over-foldy on boards like this rather than calling too much.

So for you that would make your fold with AK even more correct because I don't think any reg at this stakes bluffs this board optimally. (Incidentally this is the kind of "Artificial Equilibrium" I've talked about in the past...the average reg folds too much here but that's fine because the average reg doesn't bluff enough in my spot either)

Also remember I'm not playing vs the entirety of your 3-bet range. I'm playing vs your 3-bet range which has now checked the turn, that's a big difference.