[NL50] QQ 4b pot

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Last Post by EmanuelC16 13 years ago

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_Anonymous_

20.03.2013, 20:58 0

Hello.

Villain is 20/16/9.5 reg (3.7k hands) who defends his blinds very wide. Hero will be 4bing in this spot super wide with many blockers.

3b SBvsBU: 19
3b SBvsBU (vs Hero): 26 (46)
Raise flop single raised pot: 23
Raise flop 3b pot: 25 (8)
5b SB: 17 (6)

His 3b range is ofc full of crap here (such a high % vs my BU open) and his flatting range I think looks something like this (considering we are little deeper): JJ-22, ATs, A5s-A2s, KJs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s.

Do you think this is a reasonable estimate? I include most of these hands since he will want some nutted potential being slightly deeper and flatting OOP here vs. my wide 4b range.

On the flop when he shoves I don't think he'd do this with sets, but would rather make a 2-2.5x c/r trying to look like a cheap bluff, and hope I shove lots of over pairs. Also it's super hard from him to have QJ here since we block Qs and he probably flats QJs pre, and doesn't call 4b OOP w QJo.

So I think maybe we have the following equity:

Board: 9♣8♦T♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    60.81%  60.28%   0.53% { QdQh }
MP3    39.19%  38.66%   0.53% { JJ, 77, KJs, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 76s }

Snap call? Do you put sets in his range here?

Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP: $50.75 (101.5 bb)
SB: $69.14 (138.3 bb)
UTG: $12.25 (24.5 bb)
BB: $17.50 (35 bb)
CO: $24.09 (48.2 bb)
Hero (BTN): $59.42 (118.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.29, SB raises to $4, BB folds, Hero raises to $10, SB calls $6

Flop: ($20.50) T 9 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9.74, SB raises to $59.14 and is all-in

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1 reply

EmanuelC16

Joined: 02.01.2010

Posts: 12,242

21.03.2013, 13:19 0

Hey,

I think the preflop range you have him is reasonable, apart from the really small pairs. This deep, I don't think he'd 3bet them. It's 120bb so he cannot 3bet/shove them anymore plus he gets called so much more often.

I would also include KK+ in his range very often actually. I would put his range to be something like this:

Board: T♥9♣8♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    50.87%  49.06%   1.80% { QdQh }
MP3    49.13%  47.33%   1.80% { TT+, AJs, KJs-KTs, QTs, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s }

It still makes it a call, biggest difference is adding TT+ instead of just JJ. Even if we add more sets, you still get the odds to call. It was not a question here, you invested so much in a pot, you have overpair and gutshot with very little money behind so it would be a call 99% of the time but it's good to know how often you actually should expect to win. Basically, you win about half of the time imo, maybe a bit less. It's very hard to give an accurate range for our opponent but figuring out our equity is doable.

AMaA: The Good Life
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:diamond: The Education of a Modern Poker Player by TwiceT, jbpatzer & EmanuelC16

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