Hello.
Villain is 20/16/9.5 reg (3.7k hands) who I perceive to be fairly tricky post-flop and capable of making decent plays. Hero will be perceived as capable of bluffing this kind turn with his made hands and floats, as has been called down doing so before.
C-bet flop: 75
C-bet turn: 62
Fold flop c-bet to raise: 35
Fold turn c-bet to raise: 29
Flatting pre I think is fine here since we're deep and don't want to isolate myself against stronger hands (he will call 3b wide here). I don't like raising flop since I think he would 3b often here repping strong UTG range and he knows that I am capable of bluffing raising a lot of flops.
I believe his turn bet/calling range to look something like this: JJ+,77-33. What do you think? Should we make our raise here larger being so deep? If yes, do you think that having our bluffs larger in this spot is also a good thing (more FE)?
On the river, do you think he ever leads a worse hand here? The sizing looks like value bet from FH, and I don't imagine he leads 44 here or turns any hand we beat into a bluff (JJ+).
Thanks judges!
Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
UTG: $148.51 (297 bb)
SB: $51.72 (103.4 bb)
BTN: $37.95 (75.9 bb)
CO: $23.73 (47.5 bb)
BB: $50.50 (101 bb)
Hero (MP): $106.99 (214 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP with 8
9![]()
UTG raises to $1.51, Hero calls $1.51, 4 folds
Flop: ($3.77) 7
6
3
(2 players)
UTG bets $2.69, Hero calls $2.69
Turn: ($9.15) 5
(2 players)
UTG bets $6.52, Hero raises to $18.50, UTG calls $11.98
River: ($46.15) 5
(2 players)
UTG bets $32.88, Hero ???