TT same suit flop with set

Against a range consisting of Flushes, KJ and some AQ combos, you are way behind.

You have a liitle bit less PS left OTT, but I think your equity is never enough. I dont really see him bluffing in this spot.

Hi.

I feel like you should make your decision on the Flop. With that kind of size, he's almost always shoving the Turn. So we have some options

1. Reshove Flop
2. Call Flop shove blank Turn while folding on a heart
3. Fold

Our equities actually don't really change much on Flop and Turn, assuming villain has a very wide value range comprising a good amount of non-flush hands and some semi bluffs

1) Flop equity (Optimistic)

Board: AhQhTh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 48.66% 47.13% 1.53% { AQs, ATs, KJs, Jh9h, Jh8h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, AQo, ATo, KJo, AdKh, AsKh, AcKh, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KhTd, KhTs, KhTc }
MP3 51.34% 49.82% 1.53% { TsTc }

2) Turn equity (optimistic)

Board: AhQhTh5d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 50.67% 50.67% 0.00% { AQs, ATs, KJs, Jh9h, Jh8h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, AQo, ATo, KJo, AdKh, AsKh, AcKh, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KhTd, KhTs, KhTc }
MP3 49.33% 49.33% 0.00% { TsTc }

3) Flop Equity (conservative)

Board: AhQhTh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 53.96% 52.36% 1.60% { AQs, KJs, Jh9h, Jh8h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, AQo, KJo }
MP3 46.04% 44.43% 1.60% { TsTc }

4) Turn Equity (conservative)

Board: AhQhTh5d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 60.03% 60.03% 0.00% { AQs, KJs, Jh9h, Jh8h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, AQo, KJo }
MP3 39.97% 39.97% 0.00% { TsTc }

I think it all boils down to your assumptions about villain's range. But assuming he has a wide value range here I think you can just play for stacks on the Flop immediately. Vs almost everything we have 33% equity at least, and sometimes he is bluffing with a heart, sometimes he is value raising 2 pairs and straights.

Originally posted by Scoob101
Against a range consisting of Flushes, KJ and some AQ combos, you are way behind.

You have a liitle bit less PS left OTT, but I think your equity is never enough. I dont really see him bluffing in this spot.

If villain is not willing to call the Turn shove, he should not even be calling the raise in the first place. I think the huge raise size looks so much more like a draw or a value hand raising huge for protection, than a pure air type of play.

This raise size also makes sense with KJ non heart or low flushes, which dont want to see an actionkiller on the Turn.

Because he is a fish, I dont really expect him to semi-bluffraise hands like KhQx, he rather c/c.

So you would either decide to b/f or b/shove the Flop right?

honestly i'm not too sure. If villain is a bad/aggro fish i think we should ship flop cos villain will have some draws, and a ton of two pairs. If villain is ultra passive i think he would be more likely to call flop with 2 pairs and only raise nutted hands so i would bet/fold.

Why would we wanna bet/fold OTF when we can always spike a FH/quads OTT and expect to stack villain close to 100% of the times (assuming he never folds the straight or flush)?

Think villains raise cbet% could help us a bit here too, and also his flop aggression. Is 7.8 his overall AF? If that's the case I don't think I would ever be able to fold here without any further reads.

i don't think bet/calling is good if we know that we are crushed by villain's range.

If you didn't notice the raise size, it's insanely large and we are getting something like 33% pot odds, and we only have ~15% chance of improving to a full house by the Turn.