NL50 AQo TPGK in 3bet OOP

Hey A,

It looks fine to me. You have your top bluffcatcher here against someone that does barrel often so calling down is fine. Ofc, don't expect to win super often, but given the odds and ranges you win often enough to make it +EV on the river and flop and turn are most definitely +EV.

Cheers.

Originally posted by EmanuelC16
Hey A,

It looks fine to me. You have your top bluffcatcher here against someone that does barrel often so calling down is fine. Ofc, don't expect to win super often, but given the odds and ranges you win often enough to make it +EV on the river and flop and turn are most definitely +EV.

Cheers.

Do we expect average regg playing vs regg to 3 barrel on A high board as bluff in 3bet pot?
I was so many times in this situation, and people cbet once on A high, in rare cases turn also, but when I call down, I lose almost always, opponent has AK in this case or set, 2 pairs.
I posted before few hands with AQ 3bet pot similar board as this one, vs someone who 3bets 11%, and I was told to fold river.

I think that people 3 barrel as bluff mostly on boards when the scare cards appear on the turn or river to fold middle pair. Here is imo obvious that Hero has Ax when calling flop and especially turn.

Preflop 3bet is not the whole story. So far this player has >40% AFq on each street. That's is quite a lot above average, especially for the river. If you are against someone that has 15% AFq on the river ofc this changes tremendously.

Yes, it's quite obv that Hero has Ax but not obvious exactly what kicker. High AFq can vbet AJ some of the time here and bluff a hand like T9s, JTs, QJs, etc. The main difference is not preflop 3bet% but the AFq for each street.

Originally posted by EmanuelC16
Preflop 3bet is not the whole story. So far this player has >40% AFq on each street. That's is quite a lot above average, especially for the river. If you are against someone that has 15% AFq on the river ofc this changes tremendously.

Yes, it's quite obv that Hero has Ax but not obvious exactly what kicker. High AFq can vbet AJ some of the time here and bluff a hand like T9s, JTs, QJs, etc. The main difference is not preflop 3bet% but the AFq for each street.

Do we have enough hands on him to use stat AFq? 120 hands seems too little to me. Usually with so small number of hands, I think we have information that he was e.g betting 5/6 times flop (which tells us something), turn maybe 1/2, river 1/1, so from that we could see big AFq, and it could happen that these few times he had AA, KK.
Also I am not sure if we could use stat 3bet % for 120 hands?

We are obviously not pin-pointing his frange from that but we obviously see he is aggressive both preflop and postflop. We are basically at the top of our range against an aggressive player. If we don't call this we probably have no hands to call with.