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33$; 10man; bb40, AQo as a flat caller ip, am I a fish?

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wiarygodny
Joined: 16.07.2009

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $40(BB) Replayer
SB ($2,000)
BB ($2,000)
UTG ($2,000)
UTG+1 ($2,000)
UTG+2 ($2,000)
MP1 ($2,000)
MP2 ($2,000)
MP3 ($2,000)
CO ($2,000)
Hero ($2,000)

Dealt to Hero A♦ Q♣

fold, fold, UTG+2 raises to $120, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $120, fold, fold

FLOP ($300) K♥ 6♣ T♦

UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

TURN ($300) K♥ 6♣ T♦ 7♣

UTG+2 bets $160, Hero calls $160

RIVER ($620) K♥ 6♣ T♦ 7♣ 8♣

UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

he's a decent reg, opening rather loose, even from EP, no particular history 19/11/1.7/1.2k, cbet 78% (36), raise 1st EP 14%

pre - against such a guy i think a call is a must

flop - didn't really know how to interpret his check, its probably not a monster (though its possible), its not a complete air (98s etc) since he shoud have cbet those. May it be sth that i have beat (AJ, A9 or maybe even QJ that he doesn't want to bet/fold and is ch/raising or sth)? Anyways i dont think betting flop makes a lot of sense since prolly nothing worse is calling and i can easily be behind already + not much better is folding (maybe some pockets 77-99 but wouldnt he cbet these as well?).

turn - if i didnt want to bet flop since i see some SD value with my hand can i really fold now? The problem is that a vast majority of the hands i have beat would rather bluff flop not turn.. (apart from QJ maybe). Ive called since not only i have an AQ high but a gutter to go with it as well - would you say thats enough to justify a call? i dont think so

river - i dont think bluffing now makes a lot of sense, not a lot of better hands will fold (maybe Tx, although i doubt that), especially that there's a tiny chance that if i was good on the turn im still good on the river.

So to me it looks like ch/f every street tbh and maybe it seems a bit weak but i guess its the right play anyway. And they say playing ip is easy :f_biggrin:


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3 replies

i like your analysis. I would put him on KJ/K9/AT/QT type hands after he checks this flop and bets turn. I would not think our AQ has enough SD value vs his flop checking range (which is stronger than his betting range), so I would fold turn.


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Gavron23
Joined: 26.05.2010

You wouldnt consider trying to get him off of these mediocre hands by 3barreling?
Also as played do you think a bigger bet on the river wouldnt get him off top pair weak kicker/second pair? This is like the perfect card to bluff at after he checks river imo


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vs a bad reg or a fish I think a 3 barrel will work. Vs a good reg, I think he expects you to try push him off his weak line. So he is prepared to snap call you down.

Same thinking on this river, I think a good reg knows this is a good river bluff card so he will call me down very light. Overbetting river is probably the best way to try get him to fold, but I have seen good regs hero-call vs that line and it is very risky. I just don't like taking big risky plays vs good players when I can get easy value vs the other fish on the table.


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