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Aj Nl25$

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Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

UTG: $62.25 (249 bb)
MP: $27.09 (108.4 bb)
CO: $20.71 (82.8 bb)
BTN: $30.77 (123.1 bb)
SB: $25 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $25 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A J
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.75, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, MP calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.10) 3 Q K (2 players)
Hero bets $3, MP raises to $24.59 and is all-in, Hero calls $19.50 and is all-in

Turn: ($50.10) 9 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($50.10) 7 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results:

Spoiler

$50.10 pot ($1.50 rake)
Final Board: 3 Q K 9 7
MP showed A A and lost (-$25 net)
Hero showed A J and won $48.60 ($23.60 net)

vs 28/24, 10%3b, 71% f3b,15%(22) 4b, 392hands
50%(2) flop fold c-b in 3b pot, 7.7agg (flop 59(49))

What is his range for stack off in this spot ?
IMO KQ,KxJh, may be AK, ThJh (but i'm not sure he will call 3b with this hand) and some traps like AA, KK, QQ


Борд: 3♥K♥Q♥
       Очакван дял  Печалба  Равенство
MP2         43.32%   43.08%      0.23% { AhJs }
MP3         56.68%   56.45%      0.23% { QQ+, 33, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }

I need 39% for call after his push so it is call, is it ?


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Hi kindersind,

That really seems like a huge overbet on his part.

He folds a lot to 3-bet and he opened MP so I would assume that his range for calling there is made up of KQ, AQ, AK, 99+

I think that we can discount 33 from his range as I doubt he'll call that often there.

I also feel that we should take out some AQ combos but the rest looks fine.

With gutshot + NFD we should be at least break even in most cases, but never really a favorite. So it's a high variance (short term) break even spot in my opinion.


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