Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $60(BB) Replayer
SB ($1,965)
BB ($3,150)
Hero ($3,250)
CO ($2,065)
BTN ($1,570)
Dealt to Hero T♥ T♣
Hero raises to $140, CO raises to $335, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $3,250 (AI)
he's a very good reg 26/14/2.1/707, 3bet 6.1%, very creative and bluffy if you will, we have some pretty aggro history, although not exactly in spots like this one, meaning i have no reads on him bluff 3betting my opens ip.
another important thing is that blinds are fishes (BU reg) which imo makes it slightly less likely that he's bluff 3betting some total trash, although he may still do that with hands that he can't call my 4bet with but would be happy to play post ip with the blinds (A9s etc.)
main question - i don't think i can flat since it's gonna be such a pain to play post so it's either 4bet or fold. Which one?
how do you calculate such spots? I normally use Wiz for it but it's obv not very precise (i change the blind level so bb matches the size of my open, swap stacks around so im in the BB, original BB is SB etc. since as far as im aware ICM doesn't take positions into account anyway, and i treat his 3bet as a normal open - this way Wiz calulates my reshoving range as if it was a normal steal/restael situation). I know i can calculate everything manually but last time i did it it took me abt 3hrs for one hand so no, thanks 
Do you know any better, more precise way of doing those calcs that doesn't take eternity to go through?
anyway, Ive set his 3bet/calling range to 1.7% (QQ+ AKs), in fact it may be even a bit tighter since we have no history. his 3betting range is gonna be wider imo, even without history, but how wide i have no idea. Ive assumed that theres gonna be abt 5% hands that he's 3bet/folding with (makes sense?) and since in Wiz i can't choose two seperate ranges for him ive just put 6.7% as his 3betting range (do you think this may change the results by a lot since Wiz's 1.7%-6.7% are not the hands in his actual 3bet/folding range (with these he would most likely flat) and the folding hands are gonna be sth like 10%-15%? I dont think it would since our FE is gonna be exactly the same, same as our equity when called, so i guess ive just answered my own question :)) anyway, Wiz gives me a 43% 4bet shoving range, but that just seems a bit crazy Other thing is that our pushing equity changes drastically with even minor changes in his 3betting range:
he 3bets --> i can 4bet shove (assuming he 3bet/calls only 1.7%):
3% - 0.9%
4% - 1.2%
5% - 2.1%
6% - 33.3%
7% - 100%
So as you can see even a small mistake in estimating his range will mean loosing a tonne of money, thats why id like to ask how you approach spots like this?
Or maybe simply - no history, ABC 4bet only QQ+? And i can start doing the calcs only with some history, cause without it i can spend all day trying to guess his range and i still wouldn't come up with anything useful?
