Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $600(BB) Replayer
SB ($3,920)
Hero ($1,865)
CO ($3,460)
BTN ($10,755)
Dealt to Hero A♣ 6♥
fold, BTN raises to $1,800, fold, Hero calls $1,200
all stats for bubble only
BU fish, seems tightish on the bubble 24/19/0.5/140, BU steal 28%(25), no reads on the sizing
SB regfish 32/24/inf/115. prolly is gonna make some mistakes (too light pushes/calls) but not massive imo
CO tightish unknown 16/16/-/25
is this a spot where we should think abt making a -EV call?
my reasons:
- we're definitelly the most desperate plr
- with my reads on others i don't think we should hope that they're gonna colide without a good reason
- if we fold here we're loosing all our FE for preflop pushes
here's Nash for this spot. with his tightish stats and a 3x i put BU on approx 20% (almost all Ax and pockets + very strong Kx) and i think it's a plausible range. If thats the case our call with A6o has a diff% of -1.96 so looks massively -EV. I'm not really asking whether its a call with my hand but rather whether:
a) we should make a -EV call in this spot?
b) if yes than how big of a negative edge should we take? Is there any way to calculate it? Is there some kind of a rule of thumb when it comes to spots like that? Or maybe our negative edge is a function of our EQ ICM loss due to our position (to be found in the last column of the table produced by the holdemresources calc, -2.168% in this case)? If yes than how do they correlate? tOr maybe its simply this exact number (i doubt it)?
