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[Closed] 0.25/0.50 Fr (AK-1)

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Known players:
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/RaisePreflop/AF/WTS/ORL/BBvsSteal/W$SD;UTG+1$10.04:60/42 /0 /0.5/50 /0 /-/54 ;MP1$12.87:871/17 /7 /1.3/31 /20 /60 /65 ;Hero$24.59:///////;[/tg]
0.25/0.5 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.60 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A♦, K♥
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) J♥, 2♠, 6♥ (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (6.20 BB) K♠ (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 calls.

River: (10.20 BB) 2♦ (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero ???

What does that river-donk mean? ?(


4 replies
harleytopper
Joined: 28.09.2007

Maybe he is afraid of two flushes and just calls and bets again because rived did not complete them. His stats indicates that he is +- "normal", but passive and WTS is too small, so i think it is value bet.

Now is question about your play. Just call or raise?

OK, i will try to analyze a bit deeper it:

So after limp i think his range in MP1 will be around 4%-5% (you really cant give him more) of his hands (77+, AQs+, AKo).

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 56.474 % 48.204 % 16.540 % 35.256 % 77+, AQs+, AKo
Player 2: 43.526 % 35.256 % 16.540 % 48.204 % AdKh

Actually seems like your 3-bet is too strong in this situation, but as chart says 3-bet it anyway.

Flop is standart contibet, but you can exlude KK+ from his range, i believe he would CAP these cards.

Board: Jh 6h 2s
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 65.555 % 55.946 % 19.217 % 24.837 % 77-QQ, AQs+, AKo
Player 2: 34.445 % 24.837 % 19.217 % 55.946 % AdKh

After turn bet i doubt he would continue betting with 77, 88, 99, TT.

Board: Ks Jh 6h 2s
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 41.820 % 21.816 % 40.007 % 38.176 % JJ-QQ, AKs, AKo
Player 2: 58.180 % 38.176 % 40.007 % 21.816 % AdKh

You have enought equity to raise here.

Board: Ks Jh 6h 2s 2d
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 39.999 % 20.001 % 39.996 % 40.003 % JJ-QQ, AKs, AKo
Player 2: 60.001 % 40.003 % 39.996 % 20.001 % AdKh

On river i raise/call his bet.

BTW Im just learning this programm, there may be major mistakes in my calculations, judges will explain it a lot better i hope ;)


Yoghi
Joined: 10.09.2007

The river means he is either bluffing or wants to prevent you from taking a free showdown.

A 2 is not in his range, he only has 7 PFR so he wouldnt raise 22 or A2 here. You have the best top pair, and a hand better than yours would have 3-bet the turn most likely.

So I raise here aswell.


_Anonymous_ Topic starter
_Anonymous_

Thx for feedback, and also harleytopper for the nice equity analysis. :)

Sometimes they make strange things, like showing AA on the river (and saving me lots of value).


frzl
Joined: 25.04.2006

hi amirapuato
i like the flop and the turn. on the flop you have a lot of outs with two overcards and two backdoordraws. you could also think about a raise to kick the 3rd player, maybe buy some outs or isolate yourself against a draw. call is fine though.
turn raise is good of course. you have the best hand here very often so you gotta protect it.
i agree with yoghi about the riverraise. just doesn´t make any sence to me. raise/call of course


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