Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $200(BB) Replayer
Hero ($1,605)
($1,610)
UTG ($2,575)
CO ($6,210)
Dealt to Hero J♦ 4♦
fold, fold, CO calls $200, Hero checks
FLOP ($400) 8♠ 7♣ J♣
Hero bets $225, CO raises to $2,050, Hero calls $1,180 (AI)
fishy unknown 39/17/inf/19 (4 handed)
ingame i thought it might be close so ive decided to check it. Unless i made some huge mistakes while estimating his range it looks like a very easy fold which is rather surprising for me so id be glad if you can have a look at the range ive given him.
odds given 36,76%
odds needed 45,61% (i was expecting a substantial risk premium since hes got a massive stack but i didnt think its gonna be so big)
his range:
- straights
- sets
- two pair
- QQ (to represent the chance he was trapping pre)
- a lot of Jx (all of which have me crushed im afraid)
- a few 8x
- OESDs
- a lot of FDs (exluding those hands that i assume he would raise (shove) pre)
here's the whole range:
77,J5s+,T9s,96s,85s+,65s,KcTc,QcTc,Kc9c,Qc9c,Kc8c,Qc8c,Tc8c,9c8c,Ac6c,Kc6c,
Qc6c,Tc6c,Ac5c,Kc5c,Qc5c,9c5c,Ac4c,Kc4c,Qc4c,6c4c,5c4c,Ac3c,Kc3c,Qc3c,Ac2c,Kc2c,Qc2c,QJo,J8o+,87o
against it we have only 32,31% equity!!! so unless we think he's gonna slowplay some of his strong made hands (by flatting or raising small) (which imo is not that likely considering the board structure and how shallow we are) and/or add a lot more (semi)bluffs it looks like a pretty easy fold. Do you agree with this analysis?
i guess if only i knew ingame i can't b/c i should have prolly gone for a ch/sh, right?