Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $40(BB) Replayer
Hero ($2,020)
BB ($2,000)
UTG ($2,000)
UTG+1 ($2,000)
CO ($2,000)
BTN ($1,980)
Dealt to Hero 4♦ 4♥
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $90, Hero calls $70, BB calls $50
FLOP ($270) 2♦ 8♣ 3♥
Hero checks, BB checks, BTN bets $140, Hero calls $140, BB folds
TURN ($550) 2♦ 8♣ 3♥ 9♠
Hero checks, BTN checks
RIVER ($550) 2♦ 8♣ 3♥ 9♠ A♦
Hero bets $255, BTN calls $255
BU is a very good reg, we have very aggro steal/resteal dynamics, he's capable of 4bet bluffing a lot, calling my resteals wide + he's more than decent post 19/16/5/3.4k, BU steal 43%, cbet 83%, turn cbet 46%(37)
pre - i don't want to 3bet since first of all i don't have any blockers + my FE is nowhere near where id like it to be. If he flats its gonna be pretty tough to play post, if he 4bets i have to fold which would be a shame imo (even if im ahead of his 4betting range, which is possible, i don't want to be flipping in the first blind level)
so the question is whether there's any sense in flatting to set-mine against such a plr?
cons:
- he's so good that stacking him off when i hit is gonna be very hard unless its some kind of a set-up
- without hitting he's gonna make me fold very often even if i have a better hand
pros:
- BB unknown (although doesn't seem too crazy 23/11/1.3/76) is gonna get great odds so theres a decent chance he comes along and stacking him should be considerably easier
- i need to call 70 chips with the effective stack of 1750 so its more than enough for the call20 rule, not much more though..
flop - i may be easily ahead of his cbetting range considering the board. The only thing i didnt think abt is that its gonna be super easy for him to bluff me off my hand on later streets
as played:
turn - standard imo
river - after he checks back turn he has either weak SD value (8x, 9x, 44-77, A high, maybe K high), he's simply giving up since ive called his cbet 3way (less likely), or he's trapping a monster (also less likely imo)
reasoning behind my river bluff:
- when A hits i dont think i can ch/c any bet but he may decide to change his plan with the hands he's given up with and bluff at it again
- i can somewhat credibly rep Ax so i may fold out all his weak SD value hands (unless Ax obv) that have me beat and are checking back river
- only if he slowplayed a monster on the turn my bluff doesn't make any sense
questions to sum up:
- are you flatting pre or folding?
- ch/f or ch/c on the flop?
- as played b/f or ch/f on the river?
