QJs 4way river?

Hi mlatasrb

Would 88-JJ really fold the river there when villain is a huge fish?

I really doubt it that many people will fold flop/turn TP that became 2nd pair on a river that bricks off all draws.

If anything you get him to fold AcXc hands and maybe something like 44/33 that was stubborn to call two streets

True he is a fish, but fish call any weak draw (even PP to hit set) flop and turn and give up on river when they dont. He could have e.g. Q2s and call flop and turn to hit 2 pair or triling and give up river. I dont think that he cares when all draws are busted to call my bet on river

I just checked, after 26k hands in party poker, my river cbet success is 65% (which is really huge), and most of players are fish, and they are afraid of K and A high boards.
Thats why I always bet river vs fish If I bet flop and turn (I dont think that 65% is just lucky on 26k hands?).

So with my value hands, I mostly c/c turn and river on dry boards and bet flop and turn and c/c river on wet boards, and so many of them gets crazy by pot size bets or overbetting all in with busted any draw

Originally posted by mlatasrb
True he is a fish, but fish call any weak draw (even PP to hit set) flop and turn and give up on river when they dont. He could have e.g. Q2s and call flop and turn to hit 2 pair or triling and give up river. I dont think that he cares when all draws are busted to call my bet on river

I just checked, after 26k hands in party poker, my river cbet success is 65% (which is really huge), and most of players are fish, and they are afraid of K and A high boards.
Thats why I always bet river vs fish If I bet flop and turn (I dont think that 65% is just lucky on 26k hands?).

So with my value hands, I mostly c/c turn and river on dry boards and bet flop and turn and c/c river on wet boards, and so many of them gets crazy by pot size bets or overbetting all in with busted any draw

Agreed with you.

All I was arguing is that you cannot expect 88-JJ to fold and I still think that's true.

Sure if he has Q2 that falls into the 44/33 category of stubborn hands.

" All I was arguing is that you cannot expect 88-JJ to fold and I still think that's true."

Agree about that he calls 88-JJ, I wanted to point out that he has more than 45% hands that fold which makes it +EV.
Also from 88-JJ (24 combos) we can say he would call 16 combos realistically, so if he folds 80% combos of low PP and weak pairs which didnt improve plus draws, I think we have many more hands that fold.

Originally posted by mlatasrb
" All I was arguing is that you cannot expect 88-JJ to fold and I still think that's true."

Agree about that he calls 88-JJ, I wanted to point out that he has more than 45% hands that fold which makes it +EV.
Also from 88-JJ (24 combos) we can say he would call 16 combos realistically, so if he folds 80% combos of low PP and weak pairs which didnt improve plus draws, I think we have many more hands that fold.

Definitely, and before rake is considered you are risking 50 to win 70 which means you only need ~42% FE.;