Originally posted by kurrkabin
Hi again, thanks for the comment, why is it burning money though? The way I look at it is this- he prolly flats low Ax, maybe some AA/KK as traps and shoves some low pairs, high Ax-A8+. So his 3bet range is prolly more than just 8%, but prolly not as loose as him shoving any Ax and pair.
So I leave to his flatting ranges something like this:
KK+, A7s-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T4s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A6o-A2o, K5o+, Q6o+, J6o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o
Which is exactly 49%. This range on this flop vs our AQ has about 50% equity. We need him to fold 33% of his range to make it insta profitable. I believe he can do that.
Please tell me if my estimation is wrong. AQ has SD value vs his c/folds, but he is also gonna c/c some draws that we still have beat (unmade hands), plus we don't give him a free card to realise his equity with the c/f and on top he can probe bet turn with bluffs/draws causing us to fold the best hand. Maybe I am wrong in the thinking process, please correct me if so.
First of all, those are really strong range assumptions for a 29 hand sample here. It's certainly not inconceivable that villain has been somewhat card dead over that sample and shoves all his Ax, for example. Secondly, we've also made the assumption that if he's continuing, its almost always to check/call. In which case we'd have to fold a hand with strong equity vs most of his range, or call/shove which also isn't a very appealing option. In my experience, that in itself is a really weird flatting range for a reg defending in the neighborhood of 50-60%.
It's also noteworthy that checking flop doesn't mean we are giving up by any stretch of the imagination. By checking, we allow ourselves to see a free turn card where we can potentially catch lots of equity, and also allow him to potentially bluff all of his hands that he would fold to a cbet. We are checking flop here with the intention of calling a turn, and often getting to see the full board on a flop where if we get checkraised - we are often never getting the chance to do. Plus, we often show a better profit expectation by letting him bluff turn with all the hands he otherwise check/folds the flop with.
I think I might have rambled a bit, but I could probably talk much longer on the subject of why we should be checking back here with AQ, and 2nd/3rd pair type hands here as well. I think assuming he is folding 50% of his range here is optimistic. Even if he were folding 50% to our cbets with a 0% checkraise (the best scenario we can hope for if we decide to cbet), a cbet will still be marginal at best and not necessarily the most profitable option.
Q 
(2 players)
