As you maybe already know, stealing blinds math equation is:
EV=(vFold%*Pot)+(1-vFold%)*((YourEq%*(Pot+YourBetSize))-(1-YourEq%)*YourBetSize)
vFold% = Villain folds %
Pot = Pot Size prior to bet
YourEq% = Hero Equity AGAINST VILLAIN RANGE
YourBetSize = hero bet size
Set EV=0 in order to find out the breakeven line.
When stealing the blinds from the BTN: we have SB Fold vs Steal %; and BB Fold vs Steal%.
So the vFold% = SB_FoldvsSteal% * BB_FoldvsSteal%
Now, could someone say to me what vFold% should be when Hero want to steal blinds from CO, please ?
I tried to find out this but it looks very weird to me if put vFold%=(1-BTN_VPIP) * SB_FoldvsSteal% * BB_FoldvsSteal%
but not sure if vFold% is equal as I said above.
e.g. Pot Size prior to bet is 1.5 BB (unraised pot, just BB + SB).
Hero is in the CO.
SB_FoldtoSteal=70%
BB_FoldtoSteal=15%
BTN=1-vpip=1-37=63%.
Like I said above, I'm not sure if vFold% = all these 3 stats multiplied or not but according to my own assumption it means that vFold% in this case is 6.62%
=>vFold%=6.62%
So, replacing all of these in the equation above, we will have:
1. Hero raise 2.5x from the CO.
=>Hero minimum Equity must be 36.83%
which means just TT+. => really weird !
2. Hero raise 3.5x from the CO.
=>Hero minimum Equity must be 39.93%
which means just JJ+. => really weird !
I don't know but I feel I did something wrong into my equations above or something because it makes no sense to raise just JJ+ or TT+ from the CO when you have a fish in the BB which fold vs steal just 15% and BTN and SB folds a lot to steal (63% and 70%). This doesn't make any sense to me.
What am I doing wrong ?
Any help, please ? Could someone put these two examples and verify them into CardrunnersEV, please ?
Thank you a lot !
PS: Just ignore the probability you get raised or called.
You just want to steal blinds from the CO.
So, if players (BTN, SB and BB) call or raise then you should already consider blinds stealing in this case a failure. Only if the fold it must be considered success.
