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Nl50 AJ

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tukioppilas62
Joined: 01.01.2011

Villain is 21/17 F.3bet 1/6 times 141 hands samplesize raise mp 13%. I'm not sure which is better flatting or 3betting. Or if it's a fold. He seems to flat 3bets alot not 4bet.

If his range is something like that: 22+,ATs+,KJs+,ATo+,KQo we are 45% underdog preflop - and he doesn't seem to be folding anything so I think mathematically it's better to just flat? Even though we have initiative and we can make him fold better hand some of the time.

With our openender I think betting flop is reasonable - I'm not sure if c/c is better? River we can make him fold some top pair type of hands and AK which maybe calls two because it beats broadways but shoving the river is maybe too thin?

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

CO: $58.43 (116.9 bb)
BTN: $126.96 (253.9 bb)
SB: $50 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $50 (100 bb)
UTG: $71.95 (143.9 bb)
MP: $50 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J A
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $5, MP calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.25) 9 8 T (2 players)
Hero bets $5, MP calls $5

Turn: ($20.25) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $12.50, MP calls $12.50

River: ($45.25) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $27.50 and is all-in, MP folds

Results:

Spoiler

$45.25 pot ($2.04 rake)
Final Board: 9 8 T 5 3
Hero mucked J A and won $43.21 ($20.71 net)
MP mucked and lost (-$22.50 net)


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w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Hey Tukioppilas62,

We can just about call this from the BB but we expect to be a slight dog vs opponents opening range. I think folding is still completely fine btw. I agree with comments, if we are a slight dog why bloat the pot preflop unless we expect to generate some decent FE.

We have options on the flop and it really depends on type of opponent. If we expect to generate a lot of folds then cbetting is best. If villain also calls too much postflop I recommend x/c flop.

3barreling on this runout is reasonable though. The reason is that we expect legitimately strong made hands to raise on such a drawy texture. So when opponent does not raise flop or turn + the turn and river cards do not change the texture much villain rarely has anything stronger than one pair. So unless villain is a calling station here I expect 3barrels to have a postive expectation.


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