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Ov pair vs check raise, bet, shove line

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Shakaflaka
Joined: 18.01.2010

Hi!

The opponent is a reg.

Raisecbet 13%. Against me, I think he is capable of bluffing ovcards + gshot, ovcards + backdoors, etc.
And he bets turn after check raise flop 86% (out of 7 times) and river only 33% so far. Not a huge sample, but that suggests he gives up some bluffs on the river.

My plan was to call flop, call turn and fold river. But on this particular card, my opponent might continue bluffing almost always. But I folded anyway, since my utg range is strong and my cbetting range on this flop is also very strong.

What do you think?

Party, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (MP): $100 (100 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)
SB: $48.36 (48.4 bb)
BTN: $88.57 (88.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q Q
Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9) T 6 8 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $6.30, SB folds, BB raises to $17, Hero calls $10.70

Turn: ($43) 3 (2 players)
BB bets $29, Hero calls $29

River: ($101) K (2 players)
BB bets $51 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$101 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: T 6 8 3 K
BB mucked and won $98 ($49 net)
Hero mucked Q Q and lost (-$49 net)


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4 replies
oblioo
Joined: 02.10.2012

Saying "opponent is a reg" isn't super helpful here; I'd like to know villain's 3betting/squeezing and cold-calling tendencies. Without them, going forward I will just be making some assumptions. I find it's easier if we divide his turn betting range into value and bluffs.

value: 66 (3), 88 (3), TT (3), 97s (4), 86s (2), T8s (2) = 17 combos
bluff: QJs (2), A9s (4), A7s (4), 76s (3) = 13 combos

Assuming he usually bluffs this river and given your pot odds, it seems like a call. Although if villain is perfect at optimizing ranges it's probably a fold just since you block some QJ hands.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

I feel like your decision should have been made on the Turn. If you call here you should call blank rivers. The Ace/King are obvious bluff cards and most NL100 guys can be expected to jam on those Rivers.

Oblioo's range for villain seems a little optimistic, though it mostly came from what you said. And I think you are over-estimating his bluff frequencies here. This is 3-way so his range for check-raising flop should be tighter than that. Also, no flush draws came on the Turn so I think stuff like A9 and A7 will often give up on the Turn.


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oblioo
Joined: 02.10.2012

Originally posted by mbml
Also, no flush draws came on the Turn so I think stuff like A9 and A7 will often give up on the Turn.

A9 and A7 are likely better to barrel with than QJ


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oblioo
Joined: 02.10.2012

But I agree my ranges might be optimistic; I don't know anything about this player's frequencies.


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