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NL200 AA 3b pot 150bb deep river decision

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bisovic
Joined: 04.08.2011

Villain 29/21/BU 1st 67%/foldto3bet 54%/af 1,5/afq 28,22,24/fold2cb 3b pot 43%/fold2turncb 3b pot 33%(52)/wtsd 29%/w$sd 55%/wwsf 42%/20k hand

He seems really really passive so far. What do you think about c/f river against this opponent. His wwsf and afq are very low and he should bluff here stuff like QTo,KTo,AJo,AQo with a spade to a profitable call.


Asztal: 2♦9♠4♠ K♠ 9♥
       Részesedés   Nyert  Osztozás
MP2        40.96%  40.96%     0.00% { AsAc }
MP3        59.04%  59.04%     0.00% { 99, 44, 22, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Qs8s, Js8s, Ts8s, Ts7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, AdQs, AhQs, AcQs, AdJs, AhJs, AcJs, AdTs, AhTs, AsTd, AsTh, AsTc, AcTs, QdJs, QhJs, QsJd, QsJh, QsJc, QcJs, QdTs, QhTs, QsTd, QsTh, QsTc, QcTs }

Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $211.05 (105.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $710.91 (355.5 bb)
UTG: $499.70 (249.9 bb)
MP: $200 (100 bb)
CO: $200 (100 bb)
BTN: $308.60 (154.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A A
3 folds, BTN raises to $5, SB folds, Hero raises to $20, BTN calls $15

Flop: ($41) 9 4 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $20, BTN calls $20

Turn: ($81) K (2 players)
Hero bets $40, BTN calls $40

River: ($161) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $228.60 and is all-in, Hero?


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10 replies
mesisification
Joined: 05.08.2011

I'd use bigger betsizings on the flop/turn since we're deeper.

I'd prefer shoving over checking on the river.


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bisovic
Joined: 04.08.2011

Originally posted by mesisification
I'd use bigger betsizings on the flop/turn since we're deeper.

I'd prefer shoving over checking on the river.

We are far behind against his calling range on the river so I think there are only two options here like C/F or C/C.


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mesisification
Joined: 05.08.2011

Yeah you're right in my opinion when I look at it now. Just throwing my thoughts to learn.. :P

I played with equilab for fun and it seems like check/calling would be the best play. By shoving the river our equity vs. calling range would be around 30%. By checking and letting villain bet our equity is around 45-55%, depending if villain shoves some KT/KJ/KQ flouts for value on the river or if villains turns some small pp's into a bluff like 3s3d.

Just my calculations, could be wrong.


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JohnyC1337
Joined: 27.05.2011

Its absurd that villain shoves Kx for value and also that he floats low pp 2x on this board...

I would start with check OTT with AsAx and jut call down. As played mehh... villain can have 9x hands and some flushes. If you would shove flush than I think you have absolutely c/c this hand because of top of your range. But personally I would fold it on my limit (nl100). Guys aren aggro enought... Nl200 dunno


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bisovic
Joined: 04.08.2011

I don't see any reason to C/C this turn with AA because he would definitely checkbehind most of his weak hands with SD value but he call with them if we bet the turn.

This range maybe a bit loose but it is possible that he calls with 2over and a bd fd on this flop texture.


Asztal: 2♦9♠4♠ K♠
       Részesedés   Nyert  Osztozás
MP2        61.22%  61.22%     0.00% { AsAc }
MP3        38.78%  38.78%     0.00% { 99, 44, 22, JdJs, JhJs, JsJc, TdTs, ThTs, TsTc, KdQd, KdJd, QsJs, KdTd, QsTs, JsTs, Qs8s, Js8s, Ts8s, Ts7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, AdQs, AhQs, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AcQs, AdJs, AhJs, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AcJs, AsTd, AsTh, AsTc, KdQs, KhQs, KsQd, KsQh, KsQc, KcQs, KdJs, KhJs, KsJd, KsJh, KsJc, KcJs, QdJs, QhJs, QsJd, QsJh, QsJc, QcJs }

Edit: I leave out 9x from his range so our EQ could be more higher on the turn


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adrimam67
Joined: 18.11.2010

Without the A:s I think it would be a c/c but here his bluffing range is way thiner.

I disagree with the range you propose because he's not shoving Kx for value, or floating 2x with GSSD+weak FD, or bluffing with AQ, AJ all the time.

So, I guess if you put this into Equilab we have a clear c/f here.


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bisovic
Joined: 04.08.2011

Originally posted by adrimam67
Without the A:s I think it would be a c/c but here his bluffing range is way thiner.

I disagree with the range you propose because he's not shoving Kx for value, or floating 2x with GSSD+weak FD, or bluffing with AQ, AJ all the time.

So, I guess if you put this into Equilab we have a clear c/f here.

The range I prupose is villain turn calling range. :) I know he does not shove Kx for value on the river but AQ,AJ,AT,JQ and maybe 66,77,88 with a spade. So it is not so clear to me.


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JohnyC1337
Joined: 27.05.2011

Yeah he can ck/back some weak SD value but you have still one street to play...

So you can valuebet OTR after x/x OTT.

I would understand turn bet if your plan was to valuebet river again but it seems too thin for me because villain has much more flushes so deep IP.

And sometimes he can start bluffing OTT.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Looks like a checkfold by default against a straightforward opponent but if u think villain is good enough to bluffshove 88 here then u have to call with this hand

(Top of your range, villain may valuebet kq sometimes, u have spade blocker)


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JohnyC1337
Joined: 27.05.2011

Originally posted by mbml
Looks like a checkfold by default against a straightforward opponent but if u think villain is good enough to bluffshove 88 here then u have to call with this hand

(Top of your range, villain may valuebet kq sometimes, u have spade blocker)

And turn is easy bet or is it good to c/c with AsA? How would you play AhAd?


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