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NL200 zoom AQ TPTK vs flop raise

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bisovic
Joined: 04.08.2011

Villian 28/21/MP call open 9%/3bet 9,2/3b from MP 1%/af 2,3/afq 42,35,39/fold2cb 38%/raise cb 9%/wtsd 27%/w$sd 44%/wwsf 48%/6,4k hand

He represents 2 or maybe 3 sets but I do not think he has 33 in his range but he coldcalls 9% from MP so I calculate with it.

I don't know how does his flop raising range look like but I think something like this:


Asztal: J♥Q♠2♠ 5♥ 7♣
       Részesedés   Nyert  Osztozás
MP2        36.41%  36.41%     0.00% { AcQd }
MP3        63.59%  63.59%     0.00% { QQ-JJ, 22, AhKh, AsKs, AhTh, AsTs }

Potodds on the river 27%.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $200 (100 bb)
SB: $200 (100 bb)
BB: $287.14 (143.6 bb)
Hero (UTG): $535.27 (267.6 bb)
MP: $210.66 (105.3 bb)
CO: $200 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A Q
Hero raises to $6, MP calls $6, 4 folds

Flop: ($15) Q J 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $11.45, MP raises to $36, Hero calls $24.55

Turn: ($87) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $52, Hero calls $52

River: ($191) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $116.66 and is all-in, Hero ?


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5 replies
mesisification
Joined: 05.08.2011

Raise cbet of 9% is extremely low which makes me think that folding is a correct play even thought it's a really tight option.

Do you think that villain would call your open with ATs? Seems pretty unlikely to me but I could be wrong.

Is there weaker opponents behind MP? If so, he might call with all pocket pairs since he expects weaker players to call often enough to justify calling.

If I had to guess villains range, I'd say it's QQ, JJ and AsKs, maybe AhKh, possibly 55.


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bisovic
Joined: 04.08.2011

Hi!

Only regulars at the table. I think if he flats with deuces then he also flat with ATs too.


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mesisification
Joined: 05.08.2011

Okey. If you had 22 in your flatting range UTG vs MP would you personally call with ATs? I wouldn't but I guess that's a leak of mine.


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JohnyC1337
Joined: 27.05.2011

22 has much worse playability than ATs imo...

AS played I would fold turn or calldown on totally blank card OTR. All draws missed thats it.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

I think this is a calldown. Not thrilled with it but u have a pretty strong hand with no flush blockers and all draws missed. Folding seems highly exploitable and im not too sure if we can read too much into the stats

9% raise is on the lower side but what you will notice is that people often use a more bluff heavy range (because they cant raise for thin value). At least thats what i find myself doing sometimes


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