NL20 SH Speed QQ MP vs BTN 2nd pair

What about betting small on flop to induce some spews?

Hey Alleen86

This is a very ugly board for our hand and specially when we are OOP! First you have to ask yourself how many streets of value you can get with this hand on this board. Is a hand worse then yours going to call you 3 streets? Well no not really. But the board is kind of wet and you can get value from draws.

Flop: I like

Now the turn completes 9T and 45 but now 78 also beats you and 67 is still beating you. Basically you only have a value bet against a FD and 99-JJ. But then 99 also has 8 clean outs vs you. So I think betting the turn is a little bit thin and if I'd bet I'd make it smaller, something like $2. Tbh I'd x/c usually here (not if he pots it or shoves though) to keep his range wide and maybe he bets some random floats. And then river would be an easy x/f for me

As played on the river there is nothing you beat right here and I don't see any good reason to bet. You don't HAVE to bet like you say, maybe he checks behind! And if you bet smaller on the turn you might not even go wrong with a x/f on the river? Imo you spewed 6bb here and that will hurt your WR in the long run.

Disclaimer: I'm not a coach!

RasTweet

I just had an interesting thought about the river. Lets say you are a BE player (not saying you are but just to make things easy). And you wouldn't bet this river once every 100 hands your WR would be 6bb/100 now you just gone from BE player to crusher.

Originally posted by RasTweet
Hey Alleen86

This is a very ugly board for our hand and specially when we are OOP! First you have to ask yourself how many streets of value you can get with this hand on this board. Is a hand worse then yours going to call you 3 streets? Well no not really. But the board is kind of wet and you can get value from draws.

Flop: I like

Now the turn completes 9T and 45 but now 78 also beats you and 67 is still beating you. Basically you only have a value bet against a FD and 99-JJ. But then 99 also has 8 clean outs vs you. So I think betting the turn is a little bit thin and if I'd bet I'd make it smaller, something like $2. Tbh I'd x/c usually here (not if he pots it or shoves though) to keep his range wide and maybe he bets some random floats. And then river would be an easy x/f for me

As played on the river there is nothing you beat right here and I don't see any good reason to bet. You don't HAVE to bet like you say, maybe he checks behind! And if you bet smaller on the turn you might not even go wrong with a x/f on the river? Imo you spewed 6bb here and that will hurt your WR in the long run.

Disclaimer: I'm not a coach!

RasTweet

Thanks!

As I said in my analysis, I believe check/folding on the turn would be the safest. If he was a fullstack, that would be my standard move. Like this, I wasn't sure..

Originally posted by RasTweet
I just had an interesting thought about the river. Lets say you are a BE player (not saying you are but just to make things easy). And you wouldn't bet this river once every 100 hands your WR would be 6bb/100 now you just gone from BE player to crusher.

Spoiler

I hope that is right. Makes perfect sense in my mind.

Not sure I understand this, but was blond as a child. ♦

Originally posted by Alleen86

Originally posted by RasTweet
I just had an interesting thought about the river. Lets say you are a BE player (not saying you are but just to make things easy). And you wouldn't bet this river once every 100 hands your WR would be 6bb/100 now you just gone from BE player to crusher.

Spoiler

I hope that is right. Makes perfect sense in my mind.

Not sure I understand this, but was blond as a child. ♦

Except you mean I would safe 6bb's with check/folding the river? The cach is that I have really great odds if he bets and I can assume that his hand isn't always better than mine.

Originally posted by Alleen86

Originally posted by Alleen86

Originally posted by RasTweet
I just had an interesting thought about the river. Lets say you are a BE player (not saying you are but just to make things easy). And you wouldn't bet this river once every 100 hands your WR would be 6bb/100 now you just gone from BE player to crusher.

Spoiler

I hope that is right. Makes perfect sense in my mind.

Not sure I understand this, but was blond as a child. ♦

Except you mean I would safe 6bb's with check/folding the river? The cach is that I have really great odds if he bets and I can assume that his hand isn't always better than mine.

Nono check/folding would be silly considering the odds you get. But in the OP you said you HAVE to bet. You don't HAVE to bet. You can check and pray he checks behind and otherwise he calls it off. If he checks behind you just saved yourself 6bb.

Sorry if I wasn't clear in my previous post. It was a thought and I had to type it down as fast as possible before I forget the thought

Originally posted by RasTweet
Nono check/folding would be silly considering the odds you get. But in the OP you said you HAVE to bet. You don't HAVE to bet. You can check and pray he checks behind and otherwise he calls it off. If he checks behind you just saved yourself 6bb.

Sorry if I wasn't clear in my previous post. It was a thought and I had to type it down as fast as possible before I forget the thought

Oh, ok! I understand now!

Hi,

A bit late, but I also have some additional thoughts about this hand because it's a pretty interesting spot actually.

I think against a fish it's perfectly fine to just go for a bet flop/shove turn line here against this stack size. Just make it like $1.35 on the flop, it won't really change the calling range of a fish anyway. And that leaves you with a less awkward decision on the turn + river, because you can just jam turn for thin value on most cards. Although this isn't the greatest turn card like Ras suggested, I still think you can jam for value.

Regards,
Tino