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KJo 6max facing river shove

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benaars
Joined: 03.06.2010

Hello,

Villain is a know player, quite loose - passive type of player. (28/6) vpip/pfr 1.7 AF. What do you think of his river shove? There are definitely some hands that I beat (missed FD's, worse J) but I am not sure he donks them on this scare card. (btw his river aggression is 67 (from 6 occasions).

PKR, $20 Buy-in (200/400 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 9,800 (24.5 bb)
BB: 11,300 (28.3 bb)
UTG: 7,250 (18.1 bb)
MP: 11,600 (29 bb)
CO: 9,150 (22.9 bb)
Hero (BTN): 10,900 (27.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with J K
3 folds, Hero raises to 800, SB folds, BB calls 400

Flop: (1,800) J 7 T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 1,200, BB calls 1,200

Turn: (4,200) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 2,500, BB calls 2,500

River: (9,200) A (2 players)
BB bets 6,800 and is all-in, Hero ?


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5 replies
mylove190207
Joined: 10.04.2011

Hi benaars,

It looks like he have KQ. But this is only one hand. So I will say that he can also hit 2 pairs with that A. Basicaly I don`t see hands that we can beat on river. I fold river.

You also mantioned that his river aggression is 67. But what is his winning SD %? if it is high, then he probably play like that for value, if it is low, then he have more worse combos on river and you can consider calling that.

Interesting hand.

GL at tables!


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benaars
Joined: 03.06.2010

Thanks for reply mylove190207,

Well yes, KQ is the most obvious hand but I do think that there are some other hands in his range that are shoving this river, and some part could be missed draws/bluffs.

I checked his WTSD and win SD%. 37% WTSD and Win showdown 87% (over 15 occasions) _o:
So I think it was a good fold)) I don't even know how is it possible to get this high win SD


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mylove190207
Joined: 10.04.2011

So I think it was a good fold)) I don't even know how is it possible to get this high win SD

By winning SDs. :f_p:

Yes with those numbers I would say that he probably even don`t have bluf hands in his donk pushing range. Only made ones. So probably he have at least A. But I will bet on KQ or A7, AT, maybe even AJ. So definitely fold.

GL at tables!


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

He can also have Ax flush draws that river top pair. Even if it doesnt make much sense to shove those.


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kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

I fold vs a passive player. Straight draw completed, maybe some 2 pair combos also-like A7o, ATo...some Ax FD hands. Not a pleasant spot to fold tbh, but with your reads, I believe it's better to do so.


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