NL4 river decision

Thought it was an easy call at first getting 2.5:1 on this board BvB when you have a dynamic with the BB but the more you look into it the worse that option looks. It is super villian dependant but I very rarely see people I have a dynamic with make crazy random spazz bluffs on the river PURELY because they EXPECT you to call them lighter. It is possible he shows up with random DDs (78,89,KJ) but seems unlikely to cbet backdoor on flop check back the turn when playing vs your percieved Ax / JJ+ range he should know he has monster implied odds on non broadway diamond rivers and can get you to fold a ton just by betting this turn as you almost never have a boat (how often do you flat a 3b with AT oop?) Call me paranoid but I think villian turned a boat (TT/AT) and checks back to keep your worse hands/draws in or to induce river. On the river you beat AJ and lose to everything else that raises there that isnt a moron spazzbluff.. because we expect villian NOT to be moron spazzbluffing river its actually a puke fold for me BUT it really does depend I remember how nitty NL5 was a couple of years ago and most wouldn't have raised AK on that river.

Would probably just go with your gut on this one .. the better the opponent the more likely I would fold this river because as played your range is Ax / JJ+ here always and after you lead the river leaning more towards the top of that range he shouldn't expect many folds off his river raise. Keep in mind hands like this make up such a small% of hands you play that its really not a supermegacrazy leak to call or fold either way and even though it might show on your biggest pots lost for the day trust me when I say that fixing other 'leaks' is FAR more important then sweating marginal river spots like this.

If he turns 55 into a bluff shove on a T42hh board where you're gonna have a few things to call with, then he's DEFINITELY shoving worse aces / just random air over a minraise from you on the flop.

I guarantee and promise you, at these stakes almost everyone will always at least call with any ace OTF.

I'd flat pre but I don't hate shoving, he seems like enough of a spewtard to call with some KQ and AJ.

As played preflop definitely raise flop and try to get it in. You lose to AK and 44 only, by the sounds of it this player is going allin with 55-KK / Ax / any club draw. If he's got total air he mays sometimes bluff shove the flop, but it's best to induce that early while the SPR is still high enough that a bluff is "feasible" in his eyes.

As played I'd call river. I expect a call to be +EV overall but I definitely accept that I'm losing here from time to time.

thanks for yr words chaps

@fastliketiger - yeah like you say it's spazzbluffs(TM) or nuts here that he's raising. I think any worse aces will flat the river bet (that was the idea anyhoo). TBH I can see a flush flatting given the paired board. Given that he raises big but doesn't go all-in makes me think it's for value
@sliggy - agree, raising flop, shoving turn is probably the way to go. Esp. if he thinks I'm full of it (my screen name for iPoker is a little provocative and I think has induced the odd light call...)

keep it foolish

how can I get this evaluated by a judge?

Hello,

Preflop we can 4bet this hand for value against this guy as he will call with weaker hands but I don't mind the call as well.

Flop is good as long as you expect him to continue betting with his bluffs, otherwise I would just raise and get it in. I don't expect him to be folding Ax.

As played, I would jam the river after his raise.
I expect him to bet FDs and his line looks like some slowplayed Ax, and we do beat most of his Ax in his range.

Best,
Plamen