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NL5 J7s on J75 Flop Villain check/raise

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blackkiwi
Joined: 01.01.2011

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $6.67 (133.4 bb)
BB: $5.07 (101.4 bb)
UTG: $15.03 (300.6 bb)
MP: $5.02 (100.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $6.52 (130.4 bb)
BTN: $10.81 (216.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J 7
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 2 folds, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.32) 7 J 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.23, BB folds

Results:

Spoiler

$0.32 pot ($0.01 rake)
Final Board: 7 J 5
BB mucked and lost (-$0.15 net)
Hero mucked J 7 and won $0.31 ($0.16 net)

Hello I would like to know how you would play this hand if you get raised on the flop.

Villain is Unknown.
I learned that Villain probably would raise only very strong hands which have me beat (Sets) or Flushdraws like Ah4h or something like that.

I would give him this range:

Board: J♥7♥5♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    50.56%  50.56%   0.00% { Jc7c }
MP3    49.44%  49.44%   0.00% { JJ, 77, 55, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Ah8h, Kh8h, Qh8h, 9h8h, Ah7h, Kh7h, 8h7h, Ah6h, 7h6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h }

Call:
I could call here and hope I can get to showdown without a heart on the turn and river. If he bets on the river and there is no heart, I should probably fold.

Broke:
To get maximum value from his flushdraws I think he would call them and hope that he hits them till the river. He would also fold some random bluffs but I think this is very marginal % of time he bluffs here.

Fold:
Looks weak but I think there I make the smallest mistake. However I could have got some value from his FD, also I could improve (4 outs to a FH, but that would not be the right odds to call his raise).


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2 replies

Hello,

Against a raise here I would prefer to 3bet and put the money in if possible.
We only lose to 77/55 (4 combos) as I expect him to 3bet JJ preflop, so we have the best hand most of the times.

Best,
Plamen


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

If you ever fold when you believe you have 50%+ equity and already money in the pot, have position + even some fold equity, then you aren't making a small mistake folding. It's a big conceptual mistake.


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