Tough river spot in live cash game

Originally posted by CreamyGoodness
He picks his bluffing spots well though I've never seen him make a huge bluff. Or he's never had a huge bluff called.

Well I can see why he has never had a huge bluff called.

There are a host of hands he could conceivably have that beat 2nd pair on this board.

He could have been chasing a draw that missed, but decided to take advantage of a scare card, or he could hold K9 -- or any Kx

I don't have any experience at this level, nor live, but as the cards lie, I don't think that QQ is worth 300€.

Cheers,
--VS

I know what you mean Vorpal, but all I could put him on was a 9 or a bluff.

He has very few Kx in his range. He wouldn't play AK in this way (limping behind two others pre and flatting a raise by an aggro player on the BU), and it's hard for him to have KQ.

While he is loose preflop, I don't think he would call my raise with KJ, KT or K9. If he did, he would have raised his two pair on flop or turn, and I cant see him jamming KQ or KJ on the river. Like I said, he is cautious with middling hands. I also doubt he would slowplay a set to the river here, especially when I have shown so much strength and the board is so drawy.

Same can be said for a straight (QJ). Surely he would raise the flop or turn, particularly with the flush draws on board. And why would he then jam when the board pairs on the river.

If he has a 9, what can it be? K9 and T9 surely raise the flop or turn, and how often does 98 or 97 make it to the river?

After all that, the only range I can give him is missed draws or 9x, where x is a J or Q. Sets are also remotely possible, making up the smallest part of his range, and straights are in a similar position.

You are probably right though, QQ is not worth 150bb, but given the side of the pot (I was getting 3-1) and the strange action, I called.

Check flop, bet turn, bet river.

Checking flop is terrible imo because we heavily block nuts and draw hands, so betting strong 2 barrels seems pretty logical, once he calls both times and donks river I think we should fold readless most of the time; his line seems very strong.

Originally posted by FFRRAANNKKIIEE
Checking flop is terrible imo because we heavily block nuts and draw hands, so betting strong 2 barrels seems pretty logical, once he calls both times and donks river I think we should fold readless most of the time; his line seems very strong.

Betting flop on texture where we are getting raised like 80% of the time with 2nd pair + gutshot is even worse.

Check flop, bet turn, bet river. Keeps his calling range wider. If he has ATdd for example, he is unlikely to fold on such board run out. On the flop he might raise such hand and we are in difficult spot. OTT he is unlikely to raise with 2nd pair+draw for example, he is gonna bet only strong hands and pure bluffs himself or x/c hands that we beat. EASY GAME!

If we are playing vs player with high flop agg frequency I don't mind 3beting the flop with QQ here. I believe that checking the flop and bet bet afterwards is bad bcs we dont represent much, and good players will exploit us heavily in these spots if we take this line often.

I'd fold all day with QQ had I got to the river like this. Generally don't think that esp regs bluff nearly enough on 1/2 live and what u r describing is a loose-passive live-regfish. Not saying he's not a winner in that game but I doubt he'll show up with enough bluffs. 9:dX:d is my top guess.

9:d x:d makes a lot of sense. that said i also check flop, really don't see that much value in betting when compared to checking

Originally posted by Rihard4a

Originally posted by FFRRAANNKKIIEE
Checking flop is terrible imo because we heavily block nuts and draw hands, so betting strong 2 barrels seems pretty logical, once he calls both times and donks river I think we should fold readless most of the time; his line seems very strong.

Betting flop on texture where we are getting raised like 80% of the time with 2nd pair + gutshot is even worse.

Check flop, bet turn, bet river. Keeps his calling range wider. If he has ATdd for example, he is unlikely to fold on such board run out. On the flop he might raise such hand and we are in difficult spot. OTT he is unlikely to raise with 2nd pair+draw for example, he is gonna bet only strong hands and pure bluffs himself or x/c hands that we beat. EASY GAME!

Thanks guys, looks like I got a little debate here, which is what we're all about!

I agree with Frankie here. He has so few Kx in his range that I don't see us being raised too often. His value hands are 2pair, sets and combo draws. If he raises flop (which this player does every time he beats TP in this spot), he has me crushed and I fold cheap.

I think draws make up the bulk of his range here. Pure bluffs on the flop are close to zero for this player, esp when I have shown strength.

But do you guys really fold on the river here? Is close to 4-1 not enough to bluffcatch with QQ?

What would you want to bluff catch here? AK?

I would put this guy on 9xd since even two pair with kx is most likely to check call the river since Ak is definatly in your range, hence why he shoved instead of value bet he thought u was a worse player then You are and would call with ak