nl100 set 3bpot on ugly runout

Hey Yozan,

3b for value is good.

Flop + Turn value bets are fine here.

Awkward river. I think x/c is the worst option. So it becomes a decision between thin value-shove and x/f. I probably would jam for value from 2pair stuff hoping KJ gets raised on turn, but pretty close.

Is it ok to bet 10$-20$ to get value from all Ax hands, and do it with AQ, AA, QQ,
and with flush we can shove? Then if we think he is capable of turning hands into bluff we can call % of hands, also we can bet so small with some lower flushes to protect the range. Is hero having any bluffs on river?

Don't like the flop cbet. I think the river is a pretty ez x/f.

We've got just over 1/2 pot left, underbetting seems totally bizarre imo. I would stick to either shoving or x/f, but it's pretty close either way and is villain dependent.

It's a valid point that hero probably doesn't have a ton of bluffs on this particular board run out. Lowers the EV of opponent calling with stuff like 2-pair bluff-catchers which might be a decent argument for a x/f.

Originally posted by w34z3l
We've got just over 1/2 pot left, underbetting seems totally bizarre imo. I would stick to either shoving or x/f, but it's pretty close either way and is villain dependent.

It's a valid point that hero probably doesn't have a ton of bluffs on this particular board run out. Lowers the EV of opponent calling with stuff like 2-pair bluff-catchers which might be a decent argument for a x/f.

If hero checks on the river, what hands can you see villain bluffing with?

We've got just over 1/2 pot left, underbetting seems totally bizarre imo.

why does it matter what bet size looks "cool" or "bizarre" and which not? Bet/folding very small, even 1bb is almost the same as c/f with difference that we get additional value from weaker hands, we dont allow them to check back.

So imo, betting 1bb here has higher EV than checking, also 10bb bet should have higher EV than 1bb bet and 0bb bet.

Originally posted by jules97

If hero checks on the river, what hands can you see villain bluffing with?

I can't really see any, that's why I hate x/c.

@gingerkid

$20 imo makes it awkward because hard to bet/fold when we got insane odds. Betting $10 or less can sometimes be an option.

But you are right, it doesn't matter how it looks.

Originally posted by w34z3l
$20 imo makes it awkward because hard to bet/fold when we got insane odds.

Why are the crazy pot odds relevant at all? It is all about if his bluff frequency is higher than pot odds we get. Do you really expect villian to turn hands into bluff, and thus gives us "crazy" pot odds and expects us to never fold? I would as default b/f for 20$, and would not expect villian to turn into bluff hands, and if I would have reason to think he can, then I would call all hands.
Actually imo, villian is less likely to bluff us when we bet 20$ than when we check so this is another advantage that villian will play honest.

On other hand, can villian fold top pairs and 2 pairs vs 20$ bet size, given crazy pot odds?

Board: AdQs9sTc6s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 65.48% 65.48% 0.00% { QdQh }
MP3 34.52% 34.52% 0.00% { TT-99, AQs-A2s, KTs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 6s5s, AQo-ATo, KJo+ }

Looks like a check to me on the River. I think it's a c/c cos he can value bet worse hands for sure.

Board: AdQs9sTc6s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 45.00% 45.00% 0.00% { QdQh }
MP3 55.00% 55.00% 0.00% { TT-99, ATs-A9s, A6s, KJs, QsJs, KsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 6s5s, ATo, KJo }

I did not even assign him any WMH turned into bluffs and you already have 45%. I'm sure that plenty of players will just auto valuebet 2p+ here.