Hi all;
I don't have a specific hand I want to throw out there but a general situation I am having some trouble with with the hope someone can provide some insight.
Scenario - you are in a hand and post flop you have either top pair with a good kicker, 2 pairs or even better, a set. But there is a flush or st8 draw. You make a decent sized bet - say 3/4 pot - to push the other players off the hand or pay to see the draw.
Either on the turn or the river, the dreaded card card drops and your instincts scream "they hit" their flush or st8 and they make a pot sized bet or perhaps even go all in.
Now I realise the answer will depend widely on the activity - position, betting patterns, pot size until the river etc - but I am hoping there is a general strategy.
I find it not any easier but easiest when I have position and the dreaded card drops on the turn. The opponent check calls both your bets post flop and turn then decides to put in the big bet at the river. I figure they were slow playing the made hand on the turn to extract maximum value.
However, it is not so easy when either the card drops on the river or they have position on you and you check the river - giving them an opportunity put in a big bluff bet sensing your weakness. Or perhaps I am the short stack and they are simply trying to bully me off the hand.
My question is - is there a way to value that call rather than a simple call/fold decision? Assuming it is a pot sized bet, your looking at putting in a 33% pot call. The various calculation methods - pot odds, equity, implied odds - help during play but not so useful after all the community cards are out.
Any thoughts would be appreciated.
Valsomething
