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Take a stab on the river?

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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

PokerStars - $0.05/$0.10 (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 12 BB
UTG: 14.7 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 15.74, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 544)
MP: 31.4 BB (VPIP: 28.78, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 140)
CO: 12.3 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 17)
BTN: 19.3 BB
SB: 39.5 BB (VPIP: 44.74, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)

SB posts SB 0.2 BB, Hero posts BB 0.5 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 0.7 BB) Hero has 6♦ Q♦

fold, fold, CO raises to 1 BB, fold, SB calls 0.8 BB, Hero calls 0.5 BB

Flop: (3 BB, 3 players) 9♣ 3♠ 2♦
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (3 BB, 3 players) J♥
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

River: (3 BB, 3 players) J♦
SB checks, Hero ...

Is this spot (and similar ones) appropriate for a stab. I never expect a pair to fold, but maybe some A high and all K high. I'd Need to succeed only 25% of the time...


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6 replies
Avataren
Joined: 28.04.2010

i personally don't like it. I honestly don't think any A high would fold especially at 5/Tc which im sadly an expert on lol.. I don't know the math side, It may very well be but I don't think its worth it. Even if you need 25% its still quite a big % for such a spot where i think a lot of 2s and 3s and A highs or even 9s will call. I think CO will call and show you AQ or AK here quite often.


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I agree with Avataren. The thought of taking a stab here isn't absurd. However, this river card is especially bad for a bluff since most players, even relatively poor ones, should be able to reason that you would have bet the turn with a 9 or J. With the flop and turn action, your bet will look a lot like a bluff and you should get picked off by A-high or a small pair more than 25% of the time, I think.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Yes, certainly more than 25%, but more than 75%?

The pot will be 4 BB after my bluff. They'll get 4:1 to pick off a 3-way bluff. This isn't a normally a lucrative proposition for something like A7.

I don't even think they have A high or better (combined) more than 75-80% of the time here. Nobody has bet.


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They checked twice, they don't have any. If you are in this spot again, try a slight over bet like 3.5BB on 3BB pot. It is something that players don't usually see on someone doing it as pure stab esp multiway. If we are on the CO or SB sitting there with A-high or low PP planning to bluff-catch, its really hard to click that call button against an unexpected over-bet. Players usually lets you get away with it knowing that they have invested too little pre-flop.


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

Originally posted by spreeboy
They checked twice, they don't have any. If you are in this spot again, try a slight over bet like 3.5BB on 3BB pot. It is something that players don't usually see on someone doing it as pure stab esp multiway. If we are on the CO or SB sitting there with A-high or low PP planning to bluff-catch, its really hard to click that call button against an unexpected over-bet. Players usually lets you get away with it knowing that they have invested too little pre-flop.

i like this but wait wait, this is the FL forum

it's hard to make people fold in FL, and with this hand maybe you can win at showdown once every blue moon...


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:facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm:

Where is the "delete account" button?


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