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QQ overpair on nasty board facing c/r 30$ 6max

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Gavron23
Joined: 26.05.2010

Poker Stars, $27.84 Buy-in (15/30 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 1,335 (44.5 bb)
BB: 1,410 (47 bb)
MP: 1,435 (47.8 bb)
Hero (CO): 3,105 (103.5 bb)
BTN: 1,715 (57.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q Q
MP folds, Hero raises to 75, 2 folds, BB calls 45

Flop: (165) 7 8 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 107, BB raises to 300, Hero raises to 3,030 and is all-in, BB calls 1,035 and is all-in

Turn: (2,835) 6 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: (2,835) J (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results:

Spoiler

2,835 pot
Final Board: 7 8 6 6 J
BB showed 8 8 and won 2,835 (1,425 net)
Hero showed Q Q and lost (-1,410 net)

Villain is 19/15/4.3 1k hands 33% fold to cbet
He seems tightish but sticky postflop.
this board hits him quite well, and from his stats i think he would have quite a few bluff c/r in this spot. Against a going broke range of 66-TT,67s,87s,86s,89s,8Ts,89s+ maybe some A9s and A8s with bdfd i have around 40% equity, which means i need him to fold around 15% of the time when i shove in order for this to be profitable. I think that is reasonable given his stats.


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5 replies
ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

You shove over his raise because of...?


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seems really standard to take this line. if the board was more dry you could just flat the c/r and call down, but on this connected board you should just get it in now. wp imo


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EinsteinFranck
Joined: 30.01.2009

Originally posted by ghaleon
You shove over his raise because of...?

Ghaleon, could you elaborate? Would you call?


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Originally posted by EinsteinFranck

Originally posted by ghaleon
You shove over his raise because of...?

Ghaleon, could you elaborate? Would you call?

Well my main logic is that if we expect villain to have decent amount of air balls here I would like to keep them in his range to allow him to continue bluffing. If his range of stacking off flop has us either crushed or has 9+ outs its not that great spot. Board is not in my opinion that drawy as villain is very unlikely to have 5x in his range. So mainly we dont want to see 5, 9 or T, which are relatively small part of cards remaining in the deck. If flop had flush draw it would widen a lot of villain semibluff range and shoving flop would get lot better.


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yeah flatting flop c/r is also fine. You lose value when he has 99/TT/JJ and folds on a turn scare card but I'm not too worried about that.


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