NL100 river bluff

Imo if villian is so bluff heavy, then it is better to either fold flop or raise it with hands that need protection as this one.
If he overfolds it is good, if he floats air, you have thin value/protection.

If you call, many of his bluffs have a lot of equity vs your hand.

Why not call river if you think he is bluff heavy? This board is very specific because it is question if he even bets AK for value, then if so it is question if he folds enough vs your shove since he is polarized. Blocker is great though. So i think river is marginal, but turn is imo very -ev call

I think I agree with gingerkid in that, the better hands that he could be folding on this river can easily not be 3barreling for value in the first place. So it works out as a negative freeroll for us when we raise river.

Tbh I'd probably just fold turn as played.

Hey, on the river he can have up to 14 hands that he is not folding which are 78, 9T, AA, 88, A8 (and he will most likely check on some street wiht a few kombos of quads, cause this just how people play).
From hands that he folds he would have K8s, Q8s, 89, 8T, AJ, maybe AK and bluffs.
Even if he dont have bluffs we should have break even raise, so do you just assume he wont fold hand like 8x often enough for shove to be profitable?

And about folding turn, Im not saying that its worse than call, since this is botom of our range and villains bluffs has big equity.
But if he bluffs here all of his straight draws (which is reasonable assumption, since he is agro), then we have about 43% equity, so how much equity do you think we need (with "made" hand that doesnt have too many outs to improve, like this one) before we make this turn call here?

so do you just assume he wont fold hand like 8x often enough for shove to be profitable?

I dont think people fold 8x vs agro reg, and you are obviously agro enough.
Even without reads I am not sure if they fold, it is all just assumptions, and at best your shove is very slightly +EV, and at worse burning money. So when we average our assumptions, we end up having -EV shove.

I think that it is in general not necessary to bluff river raise vs 3 barrels unless reg knows everything about our range, which is rarely possible. Most of villians will be value heavy on river, and will not be happy to fold value part of range, and guys who are trying to defend unexploitable, you will have only at best slightly +Ev, but since pot is huge, rake will eat whole +EV. So imo it is burning money in general, unless we really have a read

Not impossible he folds an 8x of course, but on average I think it's better to assume he is not folding.

So yeah, it could potentially be +EV river shove vs specific opponents but in long run it's probably not worth it.